Let’s start with BTC’s historical rate of return

September’s performance is still poor from a historical perspective, but the historical return rate of the fourth quarter after September is very good, which means that September may have bottomed out.

ETF net outflow

In the first week of September, the total outflow was 9396.318 BTC. From the chart, we can see that the outflow was not from Grayscale’s GBTC but from Fidelity’s FBTC.

Key Cost Basis Pricing Model

From the chart we can see that the 128 day moving average (yellow dashed line) and 200 day moving average (blue dashed line) and STH cost basis (red solid line) form resistance and we can reverse the signal

From the macro data

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 71%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 27%, and the probability of maintaining interest rates is 3%. It is worth noting that a rate cut does not mean that the crypto market will definitely rise. We need to see the net inflow signal of ETFs and specific reversal signals.

2024 Election Predictions

Polymarket predicts that Kamala Harris will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election "popular vote winner 2024" with a probability of 47%, while Trump's chance of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election "popular vote winner" is 51%. "Popular vote" usually refers to the total number or results of votes cast by all voters.

In terms of market capitalization, I personally think that not investing in any altcoins and only investing in BTC is the best way to invest

Fibonacci

The next key support is 50500, which I hope to reach. I will gradually build positions from 52000 to 54000, waiting for the reversal signal.

Summarize

I think there will be great opportunities in the crypto market next quarter, but there is still great uncertainty this month. A 25 basis point rate cut may represent the beginning of a new cycle. The increase in market liquidity and the impact of sentiment may cause the price of BTC to rise. On the other hand, I think a 50 basis point rate cut may cause the price to soar immediately. The current price is stronger, and the bullish momentum is still weak. Pay attention to market sentiment and expect a better reversal signal to appear at the end of September. At the same time, the net outflow of ETFs begins to change.