This is a game of choices, not of winning or losing.
By Joel Monegro, Partner at Placeholder
Compiled by: Luffy, Foresight News
Ethereum is to Solana what Android is to iOS.
Android values modularity: it runs on many different types of devices made by hundreds of manufacturers around the world; Google makes only 1-2% of those devices. This has made Android the most popular mobile operating system in the world, with an estimated 60-75% market share. Android’s flexibility is a boon for hardware companies that make smartphones, TVs, and more, because it allows them to bring new products to market without having to invest billions of dollars to build an operating system. However, this diversity also makes it more difficult to develop apps that run seamlessly on devices with different specs, screen sizes, and a variety of Android versions.
In contrast, all iOS devices are made by Apple, so it can provide a more integrated and consistent experience for users and developers. The time saved from not having to optimize across different devices can be used to deliver better apps that users are willing to pay a premium for, so it’s not uncommon for companies to release their apps on iOS first. While Apple only has about a third of the market share, it does a much better job of capturing the value of the ecosystem, accounting for around 60% of all mobile spending (plus all hardware revenue).
It’s not an original analogy, but it’s a useful one. Ethereum is similar to Android in that it’s quickly becoming a platform for third-party networks rather than a destination for most end users and developers. The ecosystem of L2 networks that use the Ethereum mainnet for security and leverage the EVM as an operating system is growing rapidly, processing ~5-6x more transactions than the Ethereum mainnet, and that number is expected to quickly scale to 100x or more. These third-party networks are like different Android OEMs: many offer directly competing services with little differentiation, while others focus on specific markets or use cases. As more tools make it easier to launch L2, we can expect Ethereum’s “reach” to expand to include hundreds of networks processing far more transactions than the Ethereum mainnet.
The EVM is expected to continue to be the most popular blockchain operating system, running on thousands of different networks and rollups across markets, sectors, and use cases. Even if the mainnet only captures a fraction of its total value, Ethereum will benefit greatly from this expanding ecosystem. However, this diversity brings many of the same challenges as Google Android. For example, different EVM networks can run slightly different operating system versions, so Ethereum smart contracts are not guaranteed to run seamlessly on all of these networks by default, and developers must spend extra time adjusting, testing, and maintaining them for different environments. For ordinary users, Ethereum's user experience may also become fragmented: applications on one network may not work on another, wallets cannot support all networks at the same time, and switching between them can be confusing or even dangerous for ordinary users. These user experience issues will gradually improve over time, just as Android has become more fluid and secure as it develops. Still, developers face the burden of investing more time to solve these problems.
On the other hand, Solana is similar to iOS in that it tightly integrates components in the name of throughput and performance. In addition, Solana adopts different consensus mechanisms and design principles. Ultimately, it is faster and cheaper than Ethereum and many other EVM networks as a single, unified network. Developers can focus on providing better applications for a single high-performance platform without worrying about transaction speeds, Gas cost optimization, and cross-chain deployment, and users don’t have to worry too much about slow transactions, switching between networks or cross-chain, inconsistent wallet support, and other issues.
Of course, this is a superficial analogy, and many details are not covered. But it is necessary to understand that this is a game of choice, not a game of winners and losers. It doesn’t matter who is absolutely and objectively "better"; what matters is that this debate will never end. Some people will value the flexibility of a modular philosophy; while others will value the speed and simplicity of a more integrated platform. What matters is that options exist, and you can choose the one that works best for you. The success of the industry requires a number of competitive platforms with different trade-offs to maximize choice for developers and users; today, Ethereum and Solana embody this spirit as two of the most promising smart contract networks on the market.
Understanding where we are in the financial and technological cycles is critical for investors. Bear markets are the best time to survey the market and be the new winners during major consolidations. Maximalism would have you support only Ethereum, Bitcoin, or whatever network they prefer, and abandon everything else, but this is more emotion than logic. In fact, there was a time when Bitcoin was the only legitimate digital asset, and there was a time when Ethereum (like IBM in its heyday) was the only real game in town, despite the emergence of alternatives.
