How will local geopolitical struggles affect the secondary market?

Eric SJ · 2023-10-09T11:10:24.000Z

Maybe Bitcoin’s risk aversion is just wishful thinking in the currency circle? Are crypto assets a safe haven? #BTC To understand this matter, we need to understand the willingness of funds behind the market. As a risk market, the secondary market is usually more inclined to put money in the pocket when the macro environment or economic instability occurs. An, after all, in an environment where the situation is still unclear, cash is the source of security. The chaotic environment is also the root cause of value stability. This is why during every war situation, the capital market, whether the stock market or the currency circle, is the first to fall to reflect the situation. 1. Consensus factors As for why Bitcoin’s risk aversion may be just wishful thinking in the currency circle? Because in this case, if we want to reach a consensus on risk aversion, it must be reached by a large group of people. At least currently, the world consensus of the big pie cannot reach this scale. Switching to traditional thinking, most people are more willing to hold gold. This is a natural consensus accumulated in history for thousands of years. This is why there is a saying: buy gold in troubled times. 2. Risk Attributes Considering the actual value of the asset, Bitcoin’s performance in the past bear market was not so satisfactory, with a drop of nearly 80% from high to low. Such a drop is enough to make people with a risk-averse mentality Investors stayed away. After all, in comparison, investing in the S&P Index seems to be a more reliable option, not to mention converting it into cash~ And the risk attributes of encryption are also "notorious" outside the industry. If you pursue assets, do not depreciate excessively. In traditional thinking, you will definitely avoid choosing crypto assets. 3. Asset autonomy But this does not mean that Bitcoin will not have the tendency to become a mainstream safe-haven asset. For me personally, high liquidity of funds is equivalent to security. If the money cannot be used, the value No matter how big it is, it is just a string of numbers and cannot provide us with any actual value. Due to the technical characteristics of the blockchain, Bitcoin is naturally "non-predatory". The mixed-wheel environment promotes group migration, and the additional costs of migration are very important, such as how to smoothly carry valid assets. Other virtual assets such as gold equivalents such as futures and contracts also face the risk of entry and exit restrictions.But Bitcoin only needs to remember the mnemonic phrase, and it can be traded around the world (even without a centralized exchange). Therefore, from the perspective of "asset non-predatory", Bitcoin will be better than what you buy. Physical gold and virtual gold have higher autonomy and liquidity. 4. Market Analysis The current Bitcoin market has encountered the integer resistance of 28,000 and started to move downward. The following 27,000-27,150 has become a more important support in the short term. The daily K-level indicator has turned bearish. In the unstable macro environment Under this situation, the indicator can easily give a piece of news to break the trend. If you are not sure about the news and the macro situation, it will be safer to wait and see than to blindly follow the trend at this time. As I said before, the trend at this time is very confusing, and it is difficult to hold orders for a long time when trading on the right ~ $BTC

Bitcoin hedging may just be wishful thinking in the currency circle? Can crypto assets really be used as a hedge? #BTC 
To understand this, we need to understand the capital intention behind the market. As a risky market, in the case of macroeconomic or economic instability, investors in the secondary market are usually more inclined to lock in profits. After all, in an environment where the situation is still unclear, cash is the source of security.
A chaotic environment is also the root cause of the stability of value. This is why whenever there is a war, the capital market, whether it is the stock market or the cryptocurrency market, will fall first to reflect the situation.
1. Consensus FactorAs for why Bitcoin hedging may be just wishful thinking in the current cryptocurrency circle? Because in this case, in order to reach a consensus on risk aversion, it must be reached by a large number of people. At least, the current world consensus on Bitcoin cannot reach this scale.
From a traditional perspective, most people prefer to hold gold. This is a natural consensus formed over thousands of years of history. This is why there is a saying: buy gold in troubled times.
2. Risk attributesConsidering the actual value of the asset, Bitcoin's performance in the past bear market was not so satisfactory, falling nearly 80% from its high to its low. Such a drop is enough to deter risk-averse investors.
After all, compared to cash, investing in the S&P index seems to be a more reliable choice.
The risk attributes of encryption are also "notorious" outside the industry. If you seek to prevent your assets from depreciating excessively, traditional thinking will definitely avoid choosing encrypted assets.
3. Autonomy of AssetsBut this does not mean that Bitcoin will not have the trend of becoming a mainstream safe-haven asset. For me personally, high liquidity of funds is equivalent to security. If the money cannot be used, no matter how large the value is, it is just a string of numbers and cannot provide us with any real value.
Because of the technical characteristics of blockchain, Bitcoin naturally has the characteristic of "non-predatory". The mixed environment promotes the migration of groups, and the additional cost of migration is very important, such as how to carry valid assets smoothly.
Other virtual assets such as futures, contracts and gold equivalents also have the risk of entry and exit restrictions. However, Bitcoin only requires you to remember the mnemonic phrase and can be traded worldwide (even without a centralized exchange).
Therefore, from the perspective of "asset non-predatory nature", Bitcoin will have higher autonomy and liquidity than the physical gold or virtual gold you purchase.
4. Market AnalysisThe current Bitcoin market encountered the integer resistance of 28,000 and began to decline. The following 27,000-27,150 has become a more important support in the short term. The daily K-level indicators have turned bearish. Under the condition of unstable macro environment, the indicators can easily give a piece of news to break the trend.
If you are not sure about the news and macro situation, it is safer to wait and see than to blindly follow the trend at this time. As I said before, the trend at this time is very confusing, and it is difficult to hold the order for a long time in the right side transaction~ $BTC 