In past articles, we have been in a "conservative state", believing that BTC has never experienced the test of a financial crisis and that it is impossible to impose a "safe-haven attribute" on BTC based on speculation alone, and therefore we have been "criticized" by some friends.
Deep down, I have always believed that BTC has safe-haven properties, but it has not been tested by factual evidence.
From the most intuitive banking perspective, the interest rate hike policy has created unprecedented pressure on traditional financial markets, especially the banking industry.
According to relevant news, the "cheap liquidity" supplied to banks and financial institutions during the "flooding" period of the United States is facing the crisis of being exhausted. Once it is exhausted, the banking industry will be left with high "interest rates". How long can the banks last? Is it far from the next banking crisis?
In addition, the "general strike" caused by wage increases in the US auto manufacturing industry is currently in full swing. Although both sides have made "concessions", it is clear that wage increases are inevitable (the two camps are wrestling over wage increases of 20%-30%).
The key point is that the wage increase movement in the automotive manufacturing industry is just the beginning, which may lead to wage increase movements in more industries. Currently, the medical industry union has also joined the wage increase army and is in the strike stage.
For American manufacturers under high interest rates, this means that they will face greater economic pressure in the coming period. How long can they hold on? (Those who are interested can check how many companies have indirectly gone bankrupt due to union wage increase campaigns in the past few decades)
Then the problem comes. The crisis of the traditional financial system may not break out, but it will definitely be further amplified, and no matter which link has problems, the banking industry will be the first to bear the brunt of the impact. The banking crisis is conducive to the development of cryptocurrency.
Especially in today's US financial system, the banking industry is basically in a "weak" position (especially after the banking crisis in March 2023, some depositors have lost confidence in banks).
In front of us is the rising interest rate of US Treasury bonds, and in the back are corporate giants that are eager to develop the "savings business", such as Apple. While attracting a large number of deposits, they also further promoted the outbreak of the banking crisis. Did the suicide of the executive of Wells Fargo, the world's eighth largest bank, "foreshadow" something? Does it have the flavor of the eve of the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers?
The release of non-farm payrolls data in September makes further interest rate hikes a high probability event. For this reason, some institutions have raised BTC's market signal from neutral to bullish.
"BTC is a true safe-haven asset that can avoid U.S. Treasury risks," wrote the chief investment officer of investment research firm ByteTree in a report. He said that Bitcoin's recent trend provides a safe haven for the chaos of stock and bond trading during difficult times in traditional financial markets.
Bitcoin is outperforming the U.S. stock market at a time when the surge in bond yields is having a devastating impact on the market. So when interest rates peak and the bond sell-off ends, Bitcoin will take off.
Meanwhile, Jefferies, a world-renowned investment bank, has become the latest entity to recognize Bitcoin as a "key hedging tool." In a recent report to investors, the company emphasized that Bitcoin's unique qualities put it on the same level as gold as a reliable means of protecting against inflation.
The head of global equity strategy at Jefferies has a similar view, saying that if the Federal Reserve fails to "exit" from its high-interest monetary policy, it may lead to a depreciation of the US dollar, thereby benefiting Bitcoin holders.
Cryptocurrencies may continue to be affected by factors including human and regulatory factors, but they will eventually stand out from the current "bad" economic torrent and become an important part of the mainstream economic framework.
I have finished writing, come on! I am Brother Ming, an old leek who sincerely wishes you to get rich in the cryptocurrency circle. You can find me privately and chat with me.
I am Brother Ming, I have been in the trading market for more than ten years, welcome to chat with me! Choice is more important than effort, and the circle determines your destiny!
