The percentage of lost supply in Bitcoin first increases relative to the ascending trend line and reaches the 0.78% retracement level, marking the bottom of Bitcoin. Let's call this Phase 1.

Then, the unprofitable supply moves down and enters the 0.618-0.50 retracement range, where it often enters sideways trading mode and marks the early Bitcoin bull top (early high profit run). Let's call this Phase 2.

Phase 2 is what is currently happening with Bitcoin. In essence, Phase 2 is an optimistic transitional event as the parabolic growth of losses generally does not repeat after this point.

This is the only exception other than the 2020 black swan. Moreover, the current movement of the loss supply is very similar to the dynamics of the previous halving in 2016, in the sideways range of the 0.618-0.50 retracement zone.

Eventually, the loss-making supply breaks the consolidation trading range to the downside and continues up to the 0.236 retracement level, indicating Bitcoin's proximity to the top of the bull market. This is the final Phase 3.