Let’s talk about the current market situation:

I have a point of view, I don’t know if you all agree with it or not: it is actually difficult for you to predict the market trend in advance most of the time (such as June to October this year), and only in a small part of the time period when the market trend is certain, you dare to take full positions. Seize (such as certain structural sectors in the first half of this year).

At this time, you can’t find anyone to tell you with certainty whether it will rise or fall next, but why I tend to be bullish on 10-12 is because if 10-12 is bearish on the decline, then the three months from December to February will be bullish. On the one hand, this month is the respective New Years of the Western and Eastern worlds, so there is a need for capital withdrawals. On the other hand, it is also the end of the natural year. Many institutional funds will also be liquidated at this time, bringing about the need for large capital withdrawals.

Therefore, 12-2 is a market with a high probability of falling and consolidating (or consolidating at the bottom). It was consolidated from July this year to February of the following year. I think the probability is not high. It is inferred that there will be a wave of market from October to December. However, this wave of market is full of the biggest risk, that is, the second bottom is not known to be a negative decline or a plunge. If it is a plunge, it will also occur in October-December (high probability), then if you hold a heavy position at this time, you will fall. Daniel's predawn.

所以我认为最为稳健的策略是20%的低仓位介入，能吃到这波小行情，也对潜在的未知的大暴跌有一个稳健的风控策略。

Find out the regularity of DWF Labs operations and ambush the next opportunity for a sharp rise or fall!

Today, let’s review the 6 tokens that DWF Labs has created in the past two months. What are the patterns in the price trends? Remember to like, share, and collect first, so that you can quickly find the strategy when DWF starts to make big moves in the future!

1/ In a bear market with insufficient liquidity, market makers have become an indispensable role, such as providing project liquidity, increasing market depth, activating the market, etc. Although DWF Labs, which is both a market maker and VC, has achieved an active market and The purpose is to increase liquidity, but the style of violent pulling and smashing has also caused controversy. Because the style is obviously different from other market makers, it is even suspected of manipulating the market.

2/ The following divides the impact of DWF’s tokens that have participated in market creation on prices into two categories. First: The impact on prices of DWF’s on-chain wallets transferring tokens into exchanges. Second: The announcement of cooperation news to assist project market creation has an impact on prices. price impact.

3/ Category 1 (1) Take the following chart with the on-chain transfer record as an example. DWF Labs transferred to Binance after the second wave of rise in DODO (left chart) and PERP (right chart). Then the price turned down and ate up the previous price. Most of the gains.

4/ Category 1 (2) The same is true for the price trends of YGG and Cyber, but the difference is that after the price of YGG (left picture) and Cyber ​​(right picture) rose in the first period, DWF Labs transferred the tokens Binance then fell sharply after hitting a second wave of new highs.

5/ The second category then looks at the price trend after the cooperation news was announced. As can be seen from the figure below, the price trends of MASK and APRA are completely different. It can be seen that the price trend brought by the bullish news is not as good as transferring chips to the exchange, and is less effective. Regularity.

6/ How to apply After discovering these rules, you can observe which large amounts of tokens are held by the DWF Labs wallet. When these tokens are transferred from the chain to the exchange, combined with data such as spot and contract trading volume, you can roughly deduce what will happen next. possible trends.

7/ However, it must be noted that although history tends to repeat itself, there is no guarantee that past events will be 100% replicated in the future. DWF may also take advantage of the weaknesses of human nature. When you think that the same events are going to happen again, they will counterattack you. Therefore, once there is another large on-chain transfer in DWF Labs, trading strategies can be formulated based on price trends and data, and risk control can be done.

Factors driving the subsequent bull market

Interest rate cut: Currently, the U.S. inflation rate is still hovering near 3%. The Fed’s official hard requirement for the inflation rate is 2%, and Powell and other Fed officials have repeatedly stated that changing the inflation target is unlikely. So the timing of a rate cut depends largely on when U.S. inflation returns to 2%. But even if interest rates are cut, it is likely that the entire interest rate reduction cycle will take 2-3 years to complete. During the interest rate reduction cycle, currency prices may rise step by step. According to current data, interest rate cuts are expected to begin in the fall and winter of 2024.

The cryptocurrency regulatory system is more mature: In the first half of 2023, the United States, Europe, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan and South Korea began to establish regional cryptocurrency regulatory policies. As supervision becomes more stringent, laws become more mature, and transactions become more transparent, cryptocurrency may gradually get rid of its negative labels such as "unsafe" and "money laundering tool", thus attracting large financial institutions to feel more confident about cryptocurrency and attracting larger amounts of funds. field. It is expected that 2024 will still be a year of rapid development of the regulatory system, and a relatively mature system will be formed in 2025.

Cryptocurrency projects are more diversified: It is expected that the next round of bull market cryptocurrency will show a more diversified trend, including token diversification, ecosystem diversification, and financial product diversification; among them, token diversification includes emerging AI tokens, Tokens (PYUSD) launched by large companies, etc., ecosystem diversification including decentralized e-commerce based on Web3, the emergence of decentralized data storage, etc., and financial product diversification including upcoming ETF funds, etc.


write at the end

Cryptocurrency has experienced three spectacular bull and bear cycles, and Bitcoin also exceeded $1 trillion for the first time in 2021. This will mark the event when cryptocurrency becomes one of the world’s mainstream alternative assets. In a new bull-bear cycle, Bitcoin’s gains will also be limited by its huge asset size, and we expect the high to be around $120,000. From then on, when the pie of crypto assets forms a stable pattern and division on a global scale, the probability of an epic bull market will become smaller and smaller.

今天的文章到这里就结束了，大家觉得写的不错的，可以点波关注和在看~