Crypto爱玩币的村长

The public group I just created
Come on
Let's earn some money $BTC
$ETH

Congrats to the bears,
and congrats to me for not having to eat shit.
Those short sellers got liquidated.
Yesterday I just posted that there were major liquidations around 84,800 for Bitcoin.
Yesterday it went straight up to around 84,800 and liquidated them.
This morning I took some profits on my long positions.
I'm still bullish for now,
but honestly, this strategy has been going on for way too long.
I've gone long near 81,500 many times.
Bitcoin's target is between 87,500 and 90,500.
I'll look for another opportunity.
Bitcoin's 3-day candle closed very well today.
Really, really well.
It's fair to say that 81,500 is now very unlikely to break.
It needs to look for resistance above, and if it can't break through, then continue consolidating.
That's just how the market works:
It looks for support at one level; if it can't go any lower, it moves up to find resistance; if it can't go any higher, it comes back down to find support.
Right now, support at 81,500 is strong.
It needs to find resistance above.
The Fibonacci resistance above is around 90,500.
The candlestick resistance is around the previous high.
Anyway, the bulls are strong right now, so I'm still bullish. $BTC

Bitcoin has been ranging here for a month.
Looking at the monthly liquidation map,
there's far less liquidity to be liquidated below than above.
There's quite a lot to be liquidated above.
Near 84,750, nearly 200 million is set to be liquidated. $BTC

A few days ago, I said if Bitcoin dropped, I’d eat shit.
Looks like I won’t be eating any just yet.
Look how strong Bitcoin’s 3-day chart is.
The MA23 on the 3-day chart is about to come up.
With that moving average holding it up, it’ll be hard for the price to fall.
We don’t even need to look at support from the other moving averages.
The 3-day chart alone is already looking really strong.
There’s strong support at 81,500.
It’ll probably chop around for a bit, but it’s going to make a run.
Just waiting for enough shorts to pile in before it takes off.
The bears won’t fall for it unless they get tempted a few more times.
A few days ago, I said if it dropped, I’d eat shit.
Lots of people are waiting to see me eat shit.
That means more and more people are turning bearish and shorting.
That means more and more people are falling for the trap.
Bitcoin won’t stay stuck here for much longer.
Get ready for it to blow the shorts out of the water.$BTC

If U.S. stocks give us a boost, Bitcoin will take off
Come on, U.S. stocks, give us a boost
Let's stop moving sideways here
It's the 20th today
By my count, we've been moving sideways for over a month now
As long as U.S. stocks cooperate a little
We're ready to take off
Yesterday I said Bitcoin looks really strong on the weekly chart
If it doesn't go up, I'll eat shit
Today, looking at the 8-hour chart
The correction is pretty much done
It's already formed two M-shaped patterns
And they're both M-shaped reversal patterns
81500 is a really strong level
If it can't fall any lower, it's going up
It hasn't been able to break lower for a whole month
Do you still expect it to fall? $BTC

The US and Japan held joint military exercises, deploying nearly 60,000 troops
'96
'16
Late '26
The one in '16 was very tense
The world is very chaotic now
Russia-Ukraine
US-Iran
Unrest in France
The whole world lacks new sources of growth
AI still can't bring the world into a new growth phase
Internal conflicts are erupting in every country
War abroad is currently the only option
The more chaotic the world gets, the better it is for crypto $BTC

If Bitcoin drops on this weekly candle, I’ll eat shit.
If Bitcoin drops on this weekly candle, I’ll eat shit.
If Bitcoin drops on this weekly candle, I’ll eat shit.
Now that Bitcoin’s weekly candle has closed, the weekly MA10 has also moved up to provide support.
The weekly MA10 support is basically right around the 81,500 level I mentioned before.
U.S. stock futures have also bounced back this morning.
It really is about to go up.
And the weekly MA23 is starting to curl upward.
It’s been ranging here for so long.
The previous bearish divergence on the daily chart wasn’t that severe anyway.
After ranging for so long,
using sideways movement instead of dropping should have run its course by now.
Looking at the weekly chart, Bitcoin is stronger now than it was two weeks ago.
It couldn’t drop any further over the past two weeks.
So in this even stronger new week, it should have even less chance of dropping.
Ethereum is the same. Its daily chart has basically completely worked off the divergence.
Ethereum pulled back directly to the Fibonacci 0.618 level.
Bitcoin has been consolidating around 81,500, near the Fibonacci 0.718 level.
A new rally is about to begin.
After being cooped up for so long, it’s going to make a big move.
If Bitcoin drops on this weekly candle, I’ll eat shit.
If Bitcoin drops on this weekly candle, I’ll eat shit.
If Bitcoin drops on this weekly candle, I’ll eat shit.$BTC

Why do you all speak so confidently when analyzing past market trends, but so vaguely when analyzing the current market?$BTC

U.S. stocks dropped another 1,000 points yesterday.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are really strong.
Last time U.S. stocks dropped 1,000 points, Bitcoin and Ethereum even wicked down to around 80,000.
This time, with U.S. stocks down 1,000 points, Bitcoin and Ethereum still haven't broken below 81,500.
Impressive!
Looks like the crypto market is starting to hold strong.$BTC

This chart pattern should mean a pump is coming
This chart pattern should mean a pump is coming
This chart pattern should mean a pump is coming
BTC had yet another long wick yesterday
But then it recovered to 81,500 again
BTC's 12-hour moving average pattern is looking very strong
Yesterday's wick touched the MA120
A classic pump pattern in a bull market
This chart pattern should mean a pump is coming
This chart pattern should mean a pump is coming
This chart pattern should mean a pump is coming$BTC

Bitcoin is now significantly undervalued
Bitcoin’s all-in cost (electricity + depreciation + operations and maintenance) is approximately $82,000–$87,000 per coin
The “shutdown price,” which covers electricity costs alone, is approximately $48,000–$50,000 per coin
As of October 15, 2026
Bitcoin is priced at approximately $81,500
Once again, it is slightly below the all-in cost line
But still well above the electricity-cost floor
The figure obtained by dividing U.S. Treasury debt by the number of bitcoins should represent a reasonable ceiling price for Bitcoin
That figure is 199374
Although Bitcoin’s price is now far above the electricity-cost floor
It is still a long way from 199374
There is still around 1.5x upside $BTC

After yesterday’s CPI report came out,
U.S. stocks fell 1,000 points.
Bitcoin and Ether have been really strong.
Even though Bitcoin and Ether pulled back along with U.S. stocks as they plunged,
their pullbacks weren’t that big.
They’re still above the key Bitcoin support level of 81,500 that I mentioned.
The price has tested this level several times,
and each time it has refused to move lower.
If it were going to break below, it should have done so yesterday, following U.S. stocks.
So the strength of the 81,500 support level is still off the charts.
Right now, Nasdaq futures have pulled back to around the 30,000 level, another key support I mentioned earlier.
Yesterday, the bearish news came out, and the probability of an interest rate hike increased.
But it’s not a big deal. A rate hike was already expected,
so its impact on the market is limited.
There will also only be a limited number of rate hikes in the future.
Each hike means one fewer to come.
So the news coming out can all be interpreted as bullish.
They can’t keep hiking rates over and over.
The Fed hasn’t gone crazy yet, haha.
So, looking at the market right now,
whether it’s U.S. stocks or Bitcoin,
both should start rebounding soon.
The bearish news is out, which is bullish. $BTC

Today’s CPI data is coming out tonight.
Oil prices in September were higher than in August,
so September’s CPI month-over-month rate will definitely be higher than the previous reading.
The question now is whether it will come in below or above expectations.
The village chief leans toward the CPI month-over-month rate coming in somewhat above expectations,
and the CPI year-over-year rate somewhat below expectations.
That would make the data relatively favorable. $BTC

I closed my OP position this morning.
That thing liquidated me once last time.
Trading altcoins is all about risking a little for a lot.
I was worried it might wick me out again, so after adding to my position, I topped up my margin a few times.
I withdrew it all this morning, leaving $10,000.
I opened a 300,000 XPL position and brought my liquidation price down to 0.05.
XPL has been trading sideways here for ages.
The longer the consolidation, the higher the breakout.
If I get it right, I can build the position up again.
My BTC and ETH longs are still open; I haven't exited yet.
They've been ranging for ages.
It's definitely going to go up.
Yesterday it retested 81,500, then shot straight back up.
And that rebound didn't follow the US stock market.
That goes to show how strong the support at 81,500 is.
After today's daily candles close, the daily charts for BTC and ETH still look decent.
Let it keep ranging.
The longer the consolidation, the steadier the rally will be.$BTC

I woke up this morning to a disaster.
Bitcoin and Ether damn well dropped back again.
U.S. stocks were weak yesterday,
and U.S. stock futures are still falling in early trading today.
But fortunately, after today's daily candle closed, Bitcoin was still above 81,500,
and after that wick down, it has already bounced back to 82,000.
Bitcoin and Ether bounced back before U.S. stock futures did.
Lately, the main risk for Bitcoin and Ether has been tied to U.S. stocks.
When U.S. stocks fall, it's hard for Bitcoin and Ether to rise, too.
Right now, U.S. stock futures have strong support around the 30,000–30,500 level.
I don't think U.S. stocks will fall much further.
We're already almost halfway through the month.
The first half of the month has been choppy and trending downward,
so the odds of a choppy upward trend in the second half are increasing.
The 81,500 level is still strong support; it's held several times.
I'm confident it can hold this time too.$BTC

Looking at the monthly liquidation map,
there aren't many liquidations around 85,000.
Most of them are concentrated around 88,000.
And the 85,000–81,000 range has already been liquidated.
Now price should move up to liquidate the positions around 88,000.
The big players are repeatedly harvesting liquidity. $BTC

BTC weekly candle close
Long positions are still open
Still looking good
At the very least, price is still above 81,500
As long as it's above 81,500, the bulls are in a strong position
If 81,500 holds, it has to head toward 90,000
Sticking with the bullish view
On the weekly timeframe, price is currently around the weekly MA5 and MA62
The consolidation here should be about over
A new wave of gains should be coming soon
U.S. stocks also had a week of correction last week
After this week's Nasdaq futures closed the weekly candle, support has now moved up
U.S. stocks are expected to break to new highs again
The only risk ahead is Trump's midterm election, and that's still some time away
The Fed's rate hikes currently have a limited impact on the market
Because there haven't been many hikes
The dot plot shows only one more hike, so this can be seen as positive
The only potential negative factor may be Trump's midterm election
The market is currently stable and trending positively
BTC is currently around 83,500
ETH is around 2,550
Expect a bit of consolidation
Then it's set to take off
Because many altcoins' 3-day charts are already gearing up to break out
Markets usually move in sync
When it happens, they all move together $BTC

Yesterday, I said a lot of altcoins looked ready for a pump on the 3-day chart
A lot of altcoins pumped yesterday
BTC and ETH will pump too
It’s the weekend—the usual choppy trading period
It’ll all happen
It’ll all come back
81,500 is a key level for BTC
As long as this level holds
We could see 90,000 or even 95,000 $BTC

Switched gears and went for the big-bread ETH
Lost big
Damn it
Yesterday I squeezed back a mouthful of blood
A small bite
The big-bread ETH has been bleeding lower continuously for 2 days
Yesterday the big-bread did a retest of support at 81500, with the lowest falling to 80300
But after the line closed this morning, the price went back above 81500
So this support below 81500 is still valid for now
As for ETH, it directly broke through 2500
Sigh—it's still better to do less ETH; the most painful thing is ETH
Even the altcoins are more resilient than ETH
ETH has retested the 3-day MA120
At present, judging from the 3-day line pattern
It still looks like a pump-up setup
Once this pullback ends, it will start a new upswing
This pullback is basically what kills longs
In a normal situation, if 85000 holds horizontally, it should start pumping
But unfortunately it didn’t hold
A pullback followed by an upswing is healthier for the market
That’s a good thing
Right now I’m still firmly bullish
Many altcoins also have good setups on the 2-day and 3-day lines; they’re all pump-up patterns
This pullback is good
Once it stretches up, it gets even more brutal
Firmly bullish—this is good
$BTC

The National Day holiday is over.
Today also marks the official start of the Wu-Xu month.
Bitcoin and Ethereum both pulled back quite a bit yesterday.
Ethereum in particular flash-crashed by over 100 points.
Bitcoin also had a considerable pullback.
Ethereum has now pulled back right to the 78.6% Fibonacci level.
Bitcoin is still some distance away from the 78.6% Fibonacci level at 81,500.
But Bitcoin is currently near support at the weekly MA5.
It had initially moved above 85,000 on the weekly chart,
but has since fallen back below it.
Looking at the weekly chart, the outlook is still bullish.
It will reach around 90,000.
On the daily chart, it’s simply a matter of forming a new structure.
The most likely new daily-chart structure for Bitcoin and Ethereum is still a W.
This area is also strong support for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
As I said, as long as Bitcoin doesn’t break below 81,500,
it will reach 90,000.$BTC