The historically weak month of September has come to an end. $BTC Bitcoin closed September this year with a return of only +3.91%.
October comes onto the scene - a historically strong month for the crypto market.
Last month, the bears had opportunities to realize a fall, but this did not happen. And we expected a wave of decline before rising to $28,400; as a result, the price reached the target price without falling down.
🚀 Only 2 days of October have passed, and the Bitcoin price has already broken through the long-term moving averages and the downward trend upward. Thus, Bitcoin has already fulfilled 2 of the 4 conditions necessary to confirm the onset of a bull market.
Now the bears have the last opportunity to realize their potential, but many facts indicate that the bears will once again waste their chance.
🕯 Technical analysis
So, Bitcoin is now accepting attempts to break out the long-term moving averages and the global downward channel upward. The RSI indicator on the weekly timeframe is also trying to break through the downward trend upward, and the MACD begins to leave the red zone.
On the daily timeframe, indicators are already entering the overbought zone, but this is not a hindrance for a stable local bullish trend. Also, during the day, a breakdown of the downward trend has already occurred and the price has consolidated above it.
Locally, we have an ascending channel and the price is only approaching the middle of this channel, which means that the potential for local growth still remains.
Today we need to wait for the daily candle to close above the long-term moving averages in order to finally confirm the breakdown of the local bearish picture. Until this happens, the bears have everything to launch sales in the market.
📊 Result:
Today is an important day for the crypto market, since if the daily candle closes above the moving averages, the upward rally in the market will continue.
On the US stock market, everything is in favor of a technical rebound (more on this in the following posts), which should have a positive impact on the crypto market.
✔️ In fact, there are now 2 possible scenarios for Bitcoin:
1. Drop from current up to $24,500
2. Continuation of the rally to $31,500-32,700
To be honest, we think that the second scenario is being realized, and as you remember, we have repeatedly said that we are now relying on alts. And they even posted one idea publicly 👉 Trading idea Yearn.Finance(https://www.binance.com/ru/feed/post/1218314). Unlike Bitcoin, many alts are still heavily oversold and have just begun to break out of downtrends.
Therefore, we will continue to increase the share of alts.
At the same time, we personally opened a short position on Bitcoin with a small stop (just under -3%), mostly to hedge our open long positions on alts.
We do not recommend doing this, since the probability of working out the short is quite small, but now we were unable to take the last opportunity for the bears to take everything into their own hands and miss such a good deal with a risk profit of 1 in 3.82.
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