October 2, 2023 Grandpa checks in
The bitcoin price suddenly rose to 28,000. The upward trend that was expected to start in the latter part of the holiday has come ahead of schedule. Now we have to re-examine the strength of the market. Since the bitcoin price fell from 30,000 to 26,000 and went sideways, this is the second time it has rebounded to 28,000. If it can break through the previous volatile market that lasted for one and a half months, it means that the main force is collecting chips to better pull the market. Of course, it has not yet completely stabilized. From a technical point of view, this position is under pressure. It’s just that this wave of rise has experienced sideways and trial trading. The risk of short-term retracement is not great. Low-priced chips can continue to wait and see. The probability of continuing to rise in the short term is relatively high.
In fact, judging from the situation of the US stock market, this wave of rise is a bit unexpected. In terms of direction, the two are closely linked. Before the Nasdaq rebounds or has an obvious rebound trend, I doubt the independent market of Bitcoin. Since Bitcoin has been sideways at 26,000 for a month, the direction has become unclear. It seems that if it can break through, it will continue to go to 30,000. If this happens, the price of the target we configured in September will rise again.
According to Block data, the total DEX transaction volume in September was US$31.89 billion, a decrease of 23.5% from US$41.71 billion in August, and a new low since January 2021. The decrease in DEX transaction volume is consistent with the low gas fee on the chain, and it also echoes the decrease in CEX transaction volume, which is an important sign of the market entering a bear market. One of the important reasons why we chose to regularly invest in long-term targets last month is that there are various indicators for judging bear market signals. Since the probability of a bear market is getting higher and higher, it is natural to buy, buy, and buy.
In fact, from a macro perspective, we don’t have the foundation for a big bull market now, and everyone knows it. However, in terms of operation, it is not about doing nothing, but actively planning. For example, we built a part of our position last month. If the subsequent rebound can achieve a return of more than 50%, we can consider reducing part of our position and achieve the goal of low-cost position building in a bear market through similar waves. On the other hand, if the market rises too much, we don’t have to be too fomo, after all, we know that the arrival of a big bull market still requires conditions. However, we can’t really wait for all conditions to mature before entering the market. First, there may not be a good price, and second, we may not be able to get on the train in time.
Thank you for your attention and likes.
