The market has been sluggish recently, and bearish voices have risen again, with a momentum of chasing highs and selling lows.
Three months ago, everyone was shouting about the bull market, but after just a quarter of rest, the atmosphere group has started to create rhythm again.
No one dares to bet against Bitcoin anymore because it is too powerful, so some people are targeting Ethereum. We have heard the death knell for Bitcoin more than a hundred times in the past decade!
This is not the first time that negative voices have been heard about Ethereum, and I don’t think it will be the last. So now, let’s take a look at the real Ethereum and the noise about Ethereum in the past, revealing the real Ethereum and why these market noise makers are making such irresponsible noises!
Not long after Ethereum was issued in 2014, Vitalik was not called Vitalik in China. At best, he was called Vitak! At that time, Vitak was chased away by bar security in the United States because he was not yet 18 years old. And no one paid attention to Vitak who was promoting Ethereum everywhere in China. I believe that if you entered the crypto market in the early days, you still remember that Vitak said to everyone in China at that time, give me your wallet address and I will give you an Ethereum. But who wants it! This was before 2015. Compared to April this year, when I attended a related blockchain conference, the people from TON at the venue said to everyone, do you use TELEGRAM? I will give you a TON. At this time, people have begun to accept TON. (Regarding TON, this round is still relatively optimistic, and I have been saying this since the beginning of the year)
In the first round of Ethereum cycle, which few people were optimistic about, Ethereum rose from US$1 to US$1,419.
If this is the first time people looked down on ETH, then what did people say about the second bull run that ETH experienced, which is the third Bitcoin production cut in 2020-2021?
Sorry, this round, the market is still full of noise, people say it is a noble chain, and the high transaction fees have no future!
In this round, Ethereum rose from US$88 to US$4,867, an increase of nearly 60 times.
Because of the expensive transaction fees, L2s began to appear on the scene from then on. In fact, L2 started in 2017.
Until recently, some people said that L2 has hollowed out Ethereum, SOL has capital manipulation, SOL's narrative is stronger, Ethereum has been abandoned by capital, and even mentioned that Vitalik is Russian, so Ethereum has no future!
I felt like I was listening to a kindergarten class chatting.
When L2 reduces Ethereum transaction fees, the market shouts that Ethereum will definitely soar. When the Ethereum ETF is approved for initiation, the market shouts that Ethereum will definitely rise!
It’s just that the market is not as good as expected, so, does this mean that Ethereum has no future?
The reason why Ethereum does not rise is not that Ethereum has no future, nor that some institution has no confidence in Ethereum.
Firstly, this round of the market feels a bit out of time. Because of the long history of Bitcoin in the past, there is some historical selling pressure, such as the Bitcoin seized by the government, such as the German government, the US government, and other stocks, which have room for profit selling. Secondly, the long-standing Mentougou has magically landed in this round. Thirdly, Grayscale, which actively intervened in the last round, has accumulated too much Bitcoin and Ethereum. In this round of ETF competition, Grayscale’s high handling fees led to a large number of redemptions by early investors. These three factors brought huge selling pressure to the market, so after the ETF was passed, it ushered in a difficult transition period.
This is the reason for the current downturn in the market. First of all, this is the fundamentals of the market, so the overall market has entered a period of adjustment. It is not that Ethereum is not rising, but that the overall market is not rising. Looking back at the past three months, there are very few stocks in the market that have risen several times or even dozens of times. Even MEME and Tugou have not made much progress.
Compared with the AI track at the beginning of the year, and the hype of new coins on the popular public chains such as SOL, BASE, and TON, the current situation is almost calm. In other words, the market as a whole needs Bitcoin to be active, otherwise it will cool down! At this time, do you also want to say that MEME has no future, and local dogs have no future? Encryption has no future? You can't live in the mood of winning people over with rising prices, right? Wake up, you are not a gambler, you are an investor, not a gambler!
Second, will L2 drain Ethereum?
L2, all of them are cross-chain with Ethereum. If you talk about L2 without Ethereum, it is not L2. As long as it is L2, your anchor asset is ETH! L2 cannot bypass Ethereum! So what will L2 do next? In the early stage, it is nothing more than doing Ethereum again. For example, DEFI, GMAEFI, etc., but when we talk about the current stage of blockchain, the more important thing is the financial attribute. In other words, if you use blockchain to do other things, the software and hardware are immature and cannot succeed. It can only be transfer, fast, cheap, and trustworthy!
So L2 will do DEX, TVL and the like. But don’t DEX and TVL have to trade ETH and pledge ETH? This is a new increase in demand for ether, not a decrease! So how can L2 drain Ethereum?
Third, Bitcoin is affirmed by capital, while Ethereum has uncertainty.
As early as 2020-2021, Wall Street has confirmed the value storage properties of Bitcoin and Ethereum! At that time, Bitcoin and Ethereum already had a market fair value, which was also the reason why the financial audit rules of US listed companies at that time included Bitcoin and Ethereum in the financial statements! It has been several years.
This year, Hong Kong is making legal progress in making Ethereum collateral for bank loans!
ETF is just the beginning, and it is just a transition at the moment! Bitcoin and Ethereum have the same value storage function and asset attributes. In the current market, there are only these two (except stablecoins)! If Ethereum has no future? Then tell me, who has a future?
In terms of weekly chart, Ethereum has entered the bottom of the stage. What do you think will be the future of Ethereum? Will it return to the majority of US dollars? Come on, let's fight the bulls against the bears!
Ethereum is permanent, but Ethereum is ever-changing!
(The crypto industry is highly volatile, this is just a sharing of opinions, not investment advice)
