At 1:35 a.m. on Wednesday, August 21, 2024 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will speak.
At 2:00 a.m. on Thursday, August 22, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting.
At 20:30 on August 22 (Thursday), the U.S. Department of Labor will release the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States for the week ending August 17.
On Friday, August 23 at 22:00, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech on the economic outlook at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting.
On August 18, Goldman Sachs detailed the agenda of the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Conference in its report this week. The most anticipated speech is Powell's speech. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a keynote speech at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time on August 23 (22:00 Friday Beijing Time). The speech will be broadcast live but there will be no question-and-answer session afterwards.
Goldman Sachs pointed out that the market may receive signals of "confidence in rate cuts" and "data dependence", and it is expected that Powell's information and off-site interviews will be similar to what has been heard in the past few weeks, that is, the Fed is now close to cutting interest rates, but the degree of easing will depend on the upcoming data. Goldman Sachs economists expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points three times in a row starting in September, and believe that the market has over-priced a 50 basis point rate cut at the next meeting after the weaker-than-expected July employment data.
News: All of them are filled with uncertainty, so it is only natural for various assets to find reasons to adjust now.
The current trend of Bitcoin is also in the stage of accumulating momentum and adjusting. It rises for two days and falls for two days. The probability of setting a new low is very small.
The main contradiction in the market at present is the nature of the Fed's interest rate cut. Is it a recessionary rate cut or a preventive rate cut?
Therefore, before the results of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting on September 18 are released, it is difficult for the fundamentals to change significantly.
Maintaining the volatile market structure is the main theme. Before a volcano erupts, it has accumulated strength for tens of thousands of years, resulting in a natural eruption.
If Bitcoin (BTC) wants to realize all the positive factors it should have at present and still experience a volcanic eruption-like surge, it will inevitably have to go through a period of cleansing that has been accumulating momentum for several months or even years.
Only by truly digesting and eating up the profits can new room for growth be opened up.
Otherwise, attacking upward now will only consume the bulls' energy and be a waste of effort.
At least we can see that the adjustment momentum will not change before September 18.
Our view remains unchanged, and we believe that Bitcoin's highs will continue until 2026.
Before the cycle ends, stay dormant, review and sort out information, and keep respect for the market. In the case of a weak market, which sectors and individual coins have strong bottom volume resistance and are suitable for ambush? Welcome to discuss in the comment area.
