1. Short-term operation:
- Buy at support level: In the 2510-2550 USDT area, you can consider making tentative buys with a light position, especially when the daily chart shows that the decline has stopped and stabilized.
- Sell on rebound: If the price rebounds to the 2900-3000 USDT area, you can consider gradually taking profits because there is greater pressure from above.
2. Mid-term operations:
- Wait and see: If the price cannot effectively stabilize above 2,600 USDT, it is recommended to wait and see and wait for a better entry opportunity.
- Add positions after trend confirmation: If the price can break through 3000 USDT and is accompanied by a large volume, you can consider following up and adding positions, with the target looking towards the 3200-3300 USDT area.
ETH daily trend analysis
• Big cycle trend:
• The uptrend ends: ETH/USDT previously reached a high of 4098.48 USDT in April 2024, but then experienced a significant decline, with the current price around 2658.98 USDT. This indicates that the upward trend of the large cycle has come to an end and has entered an adjustment or downward stage.
• Moving average analysis:
• MA5: Currently around 2660.26 USDT, the price is hovering around this moving average, indicating that the short-term direction is unclear.
• MA10 and MA30: at 3012.13 USDT and 3333.12 USDT respectively, the moving averages have formed a clear short arrangement, which means that medium-term downward pressure still exists.
• MA60: At 3322.09 USDT, this indicates that the support level of the big trend has been broken and it will be difficult for ETH to recover to this level in the short term.
Market volume and trend analysis
Volume Analysis
• Volume:
• The volume on the three-day chart is lower than before, indicating less market participation and more cautious sentiment.
• Higher volumes correspond to lower prices, suggesting that bears are still in control.
Support and Resistance Analysis
• Support and Resistance:
• Near-term support: around 2514.83 USDT, which is the low on the 24-hour chart and a key support level to watch in the short term.
• Upper resistance: In the 3000-3100 USDT range (near MA10), it may encounter strong resistance in this area and it may be difficult to break through.
Daily chart trend analysis
• Daily chart trend analysis:
• The daily chart analysis has similar views to the 3-day chart, but because the daily chart reflects a shorter-term trend, the following points need special attention:
• Short-term trends:
• The daily chart also shows a clear downward trend, but the recent candlesticks indicate that the downward momentum has weakened and there are certain signs of stabilization.
Moving average pressure
• MA5: is close to the price on the daily chart, indicating that there may be a small rebound in the short term, but the general trend is still downward.
• MA10 and MA30: near 3012 USDT and 3333 USDT respectively. These moving averages also constitute a strong pressure zone above.
Operational Strategy
• Operational strategy:
Short-term operations:
- Buy at support level: In the 2510-2550 USDT area, you can consider making tentative buys with a light position, especially when the daily chart shows that the decline has stopped and stabilized.
- Sell on rebound: If the price rebounds to the 2900-3000 USDT area, you can consider gradually taking profits because there is greater pressure from above.
2. Mid-term operations:
- Wait and see: If the price cannot effectively stabilize above 2,600 USDT, it is recommended to wait and see and wait for a better entry opportunity.
- Add positions after trend confirmation: If the price can break through 3000 USDT and is accompanied by a large volume, you can consider following up and adding positions, with the target looking towards the 3200-3300 USDT area.
Trading strategy analysis
Wait-and-see and position-increasing strategies
• Wait and see: If the price cannot effectively stabilize above 2,600 USDT, it is recommended to wait and see and wait for a better entry opportunity.
• Add positions after trend confirmation: If the price can break through 3000 USDT and is accompanied by a large volume, you can consider following up and adding positions, with the target looking towards the 3200-3300 USDT area.
Risk Management
• Stop loss setting: If the price falls below 2500 USDT, you need to be decisive
Further analysis and strategy
• Based on the previous analysis of the three-day chart and the daily chart, we can further explore strategies and possible market behaviors.
• The following are additional analysis and operational strategies:
ETH analysis and operation strategy
Volatility Analysis
• Volatility analysis: Judging from the three-day chart, ETH’s recent volatility is relatively high, especially the decline from the high of 4098.48 USDT to date, indicating that market sentiment fluctuates greatly.
• Therefore, special attention should be paid to volatility risk when trading.
• The volatility range of the daily chart also indicates that the market may still maintain a large volatility in the short term. This factor needs to be taken into consideration when trading to avoid excessive leverage.
Morphological analysis
• Pattern analysis: Head and shoulders pattern: On the daily chart and the three-day chart, a head and shoulders pattern vaguely appears (4098.48 USDT is the head, and the two shoulders are around 3000-3100 USDT).
• This pattern usually indicates a trend reversal, with a high probability of further decline.
• Triangle Convergence: The recent candlestick trend has formed a small triangle convergence pattern, and the market may choose a direction to break out in the next few days.
• An upward breakthrough may retrace to the resistance level of around 3,000 USDT above, while a downward breakthrough may further bottom out.
MACD and RSI indicators
• MACD and RSI indicators: MACD: If the MACD fast line crosses the slow line below the zero axis, it may indicate a rebound in the short term, but if no golden cross is formed, caution is still required.
• RSI: If the RSI enters the oversold area (usually below 30), there may be a rebound opportunity, which is suitable for short-term operations.
• But if the RSI is hovering in the neutral zone (30-70), it indicates that the market direction is still unclear.
• Detailed operation strategy:
• Short-term operation strategy:
• Go long at low levels: In the 2500-2550 USDT area, you can arrange long orders with a light position and set the stop loss below 2470 USDT.
• Short at high levels: If the price rebounds to the 2900-3000 USDT area, you can consider opening a short order with a target of 2600 USDT and a stop loss set above 3050 USDT.
• Mid-term operation strategy:
• Wait and see and wait for a breakthrough: When the market direction is unclear, mid-term investors are advised to wait and see and wait for the market to choose a direction before intervening. If the price effectively breaks through 3000 USDT, you can consider gradually increasing your position to go long, with a target of 3200-3300 USDT.
• Place long-term short positions: If the price falls below 2500 USDT, you can consider placing long-term short positions in batches, targeting 2300 USDT, or even lower 2200 USDT area.
• Risk management and position control:
• Strict stop loss: In the current volatile market environment, it is critical to strictly implement stop loss to avoid huge losses caused by one-sided market conditions.
• Position control: For short-term operations, it is recommended to try with a light position and maintain flexibility. For medium-term and long-term operations, you can gradually increase your position after the trend is confirmed to avoid investing too much money at one time.
Summarize
• Summarize:
• ETH shows downward pressure on the K-line chart, but there may be a rebound opportunity in the short term. In this volatile market environment, investors are advised to remain cautious, strictly control risks, and flexibly adjust strategies according to market trends. If the market chooses to break through in a certain direction, going with the trend will be a more stable operation strategy.