Bitcoin (BTC) is in a precarious position as it lost the 200-day moving average support zone ($61,000) on a significant volume sell-off. This typically signifies a bearish trend, potentially leading to further downside over the next couple of months if the market does not quickly reclaim this level.
The seasonality trend of August and September being historically poor months for Bitcoin is also a factor here, suggesting that we may see slightly better prices for buying over the next few months... The key question is: how much lower will it go?
We anticipate a high likelihood (75%) of revisiting $50,000 and a medium likelihood (45%) of revisiting the main support of $42,800. The $50,000 level has been a critical area for the market, marking the high from the BTC ETF launch date on January 11, and it is a psychologically significant “round number.” Many orders were waiting to be filled at this level, and they certainly were during the crash. Whether this will be the final test of the $50,000 support remains to be seen—our inclination is that we may see another retest to determine if the initial buyers are willing to defend it.
The next significant support zone for BTC is at the high-volume zone of $42,800. This price point might very well be hit in the coming months as the uptrend slows and the Fear,
