The market rebounded yesterday, and panic was significantly reduced compared to the day before. Although the Federal Reserve did not implement an emergency interest rate cut as expected by the market, and although U.S. stocks fell under pressure, they did not trigger the extreme circuit breaker mechanism similar to that of the Nikkei and Korean stocks, showing that the market resilience still exists and the overall situation is still within control.
The Fed's inaction actually reveals a cautious assessment of the current economic recession risk. This signal was quickly reflected in the CME's adjustment of its expectations for a September rate cut, which dropped from a near-certain 96% to 73%, and the expectation for a cumulative rate cut for the whole year was also lowered to 100 basis points, showing that the focus of the market and the Fed is shifting from inflation concerns to monitoring recession risks.
If the recession fear dissipates further, the expected 100 basis point rate cut may inject a shot of adrenaline into the risk asset market. From a technical perspective, yesterday's market volatility tended to be stable, and the correction was mild, indicating that market sentiment is gradually returning to a rational track. From the K-line pattern, the short-term 1-hour and 4-hour charts are both stable above the 54,000 mark, and the moving average system turns to a bullish arrangement, indicating that the upward trend is beginning to emerge.
The latest news about the macro economy:
1. Regarding the emergency rate cut: The Fed’s “megaphone” stated that the threshold for an emergency rate cut is very high and the Fed will debate whether to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September.
2. Regarding the situation in the Middle East: The White House said early this morning that it does not believe that Iran or Hezbollah’s response to Israel has begun.
3. On the US recession:
The GDPNow model predicts that US GDP growth in the third quarter will be 2.9%, compared with the previous forecast of 2.5%.
Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon said the recent stock market correction may be healthy.
The Federal Reserve does not expect an emergency rate cut and does not see a U.S. recession.
4. About the Japanese economy: Shinichi Uchida, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, said that the Bank of Japan will not raise its policy interest rate if financial markets are unstable.
Potential altcoins worth watching now
1. BABY
Pepe is the second largest meme coin by market cap and the 26th largest cryptocurrency in the world. Although Pepe was not initially promoted as a utility token, it quickly gained popularity and developed into a legitimate cryptocurrency with a large and loyal following.
Over the past year, the price of Pepe has soared 423%, and has risen 21,428% since April 2023. According to PEPE's roadmap, the team plans to expand its ecosystem by introducing new tools and features in Phase 3, which may provide practical use value for PEPE.
2.SUN
Solana is designed to support decentralized finance (DeFi) applications, decentralized applications (DApps), and smart contracts. It operates through a unique combination of Proof of Stake and Proof of History mechanisms, enabling fast and secure transaction processing. Solana's native token, SOL, powers the platform, and its main advantage is its ability to process a large number of transactions per second with minimal fees. Solana's extensive ecosystem and collaboration with various projects have driven its development and adoption.
When SOL was launched in 2020, the price was $0.77. By late July 2024, the price had risen to about $156.62, a 20,241% increase. Over the past year, Solana’s price has surged 405%, making it one of the best cryptocurrencies to hold in 2024.
3.FLOKI
Floki (FLOKI) has rapidly evolved from a meme coin into a thriving Web3 ecosystem with an emphasis on community engagement and strategic marketing. Its product offerings have expanded to include TokenFi for NFT and asset tokenization, an immersive Play-to-Earn (P2E) metaverse, rewarding staking dApps, and an active DeFi marketplace. Unlike other meme coins that lack intrinsic value, FLOKI runs on Ethereum and Binance Smart Chain (BSC) blockchains as a multi-chain token.
With a total market cap of $968 million, FLOKI is the sixth largest meme coin by market cap. Over the past year, Floki’s price has increased by 365%. Given its growing popularity and community-driven innovation, Floki is a cryptocurrency worth considering.
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