Let me explain why. Make sure you print, bookmark this, & retweet it as well. 🧵
1/3
- 📉 Current Correction: #Altcoins have been going down while #BTC has been moving sideways or declining.
- 📈 BTC.D Growing: Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) has kept rising and reaching new highs.
- 🔍 Key Insight: This behavior is NEVER indicative of a top since the money hasn't flowed from #BTC to altcoins and then to stablecoins yet.
2/3
- 📅 Cycle Top Analysis:
- In April 2021 and January 2018, we observed:
- 🚀 Altseason during BTC Weakness: Altcoins surged while Bitcoin showed weakness.
- 📉 BTC.D Severe Downtrend: Bitcoin Dominance fell sharply.
- 📊 Random Alts Popping 50-150% Daily: Many altcoins experienced significant daily gains.
- 🧩 Pattern: During cycle tops, new retail investors typically buy altcoins at their peak prices, serving as exit liquidity for more experienced traders.
3/3
- 📆 Historical Behavior:
- The 2017-2018 and 2021 cycle tops demonstrated similar money flow patterns:
- 📉 BTC.D Tops, then Falls: Bitcoin Dominance peaks and then declines, signaling the start of altseason.
- 🚀 BTCUSD Final Pump, then Sideways: Bitcoin's price experiences a final surge, then moves sideways and shows signs of weakness.
- 🌕 Alts and Total3 Surge: Altcoins and Total3 (market cap of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) rally significantly a few weeks after Bitcoin tops.
- 🔻 BTC.D Drops Below 40%: When Bitcoin Dominance falls below 40%, the entire market crashes, ushering in a bear market.
Conclusion:
- 📈 BTC.D Still Trending Up: Bitcoin Dominance hasn't peaked yet; it's still on an upward trend.
- ⏳ Altseason Not Here: There is no sign of altseason; we are currently in a mid-cycle correction.
- 💡 Strategy: Hold Bitcoin, add altcoins on dips, and remain patient.
#Bitcoin $BTC #Altcoins #Altseason $BTCUSD
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