Improving economic conditions, fewer unanswered questions in the market, and strong performance from stablecoins point to a promising future for cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin expected to lead the way. Hang in there and don’t be swayed by possible profit-taking swings.
Bitcoin Pullback: Challenges for Short-Term Traders and Opportunities for Long-Term Investors
Recently, Bitcoin has experienced a significant correction, with the price falling by nearly $10,000 from its high point, a drop of more than ten percent. For short-term traders, such a decline is undoubtedly a huge impact.
However, from a long-term investment perspective, Bitcoin still fluctuates between $60,000 and $73,000, without changing the overall trend and the ultimate investment return expectations.
The price once plunged to $60,500, forming a hammer line with large volume, showing that the market has stopped falling and entered a volatile phase. This retracement is mainly to test the support level below again. At present, the support of $60,000 is still solid.
The recent market seems to give people a feeling that "every rise is just to fall better." Although it is a bull market, the market trend shows the characteristics of a bear market.
At present, many people are skeptical about whether we are in a bull market, but once the market rises slightly, they begin to question the authenticity of the bull market. This contradiction and change is the nature of the market.
Many phenomena seen in the market are often man-made illusions. Therefore, only by maintaining firm investment beliefs can you ultimately achieve your investment goals.
Market optimism dominates the medium- and long-term outlook
On April 20, 2024, Bitcoin completed its fourth halving, and the block reward dropped from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Historically, halving events typically trigger significant price increases, with most increases occurring within the first 100 days following the halving.
The current mixed signals from major central banks indicate a cautiously optimistic economic outlook. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are considering potential rate cuts, while the Bank of Japan's hawkish stance reflects the complexity of the global economic environment. These conditions are generally favorable for risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, as lower interest rates drive investors toward high-yield opportunities.
The end of Mt. Gox distributions removes a potential source of market volatility. The market’s resilience to these distributions suggests that demand for Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies remains strong. In addition, Tether’s strong financial performance and transparency enhance the appeal of stablecoins, providing reliable support for the broader crypto market.
In the short term, crypto markets may benefit from the cautious stance of major central banks and the reduction in Mt. Gox distribution. A stable or slightly weaker dollar may make it easier for international investors to enter the crypto market, while a stronger yen may encourage Japanese investors to hold their crypto assets. Tether's strong performance also provides a stable environment for potential upside moves in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
In the medium term, the prospects for cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, are promising. Historical patterns suggest significant price increases following halving events, and demand for risky assets is likely to remain strong as economic conditions favor lower interest rates. The resilience shown during the Mt. Gox asset distribution further strengthened the bullish sentiment. If economic data continues to support the cautious optimism of central banks, the crypto market may see continued growth.
Evening market review:
BTC: It rebounded weakly with support in the second support range of 61210~60386 given yesterday, but the structure of stopping the decline and sustainable rise has not been formed on the market, so it is better to close the position while the market is ahead. According to the structure that has been shown, after another adjustment in 4H to the short-term support and insertion area, it is expected to form a staged low area of this callback. Short-term suppression is 63313~63753, short-term support is 59708~58878, and the reference point for the game insertion is around 58186 (after reaching this area, there is a chance to usher in a wave of daily rebound shown on July 10)!
ETH: From the perspective of form, it has reached the support range, but before BTC forms an upward structure, it is difficult for the aunt to have an independent market, so short-term orders should be placed as low as possible to make a sharp drop and rebound. Short-term suppression 3091~3133, short-term support 2718~2688. Medium- and long-term support is around 2478. This position will generally not be reached in the short term, but if it can be reached, 95% is mainly based on the pin rebound, and support order placement to try your luck.
