1. Recent Bitcoin market fluctuations
At 9:00 on the 29th, BTC briefly broke through $70,000, then fell, with a four-hour line drop of 2.12%, and finally stabilized around $67,000. At around 6:00 this morning, BTC fell again, hitting a low of $65,862, and then hovered around $67,000.
Affected by the performance of BTC, ETH also fell from above $3,500 to a low of $3,087, and has now rebounded to around $3,300. Altcoins generally fell. In the past 24 hours, the entire network had a liquidation of $168 million, and long orders had a liquidation of $144 million.
This month, after the negative news of Germany selling BTC was digested, the market began to rise dramatically due to Trump's assassination and the US election. From $58,000 in the middle of the month to around $68,000, the market fell back after Trump announced a very positive view of various types of Bitcoin for the election. But not long after, the interest rate market generally expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates for the first time this year in September, and BTC spot ETF data continued to have a net inflow. Under the influence of a series of positive news, BTC then began to surge upward again. Just when BTC broke through $70,000 and was close to the historical high of $73,777 set in March, the market was frustrated again and the trend was downward. BTC prices faced many difficulties in setting new highs.
2. Factors Affecting Bitcoin Market
Whole network$BTC The contract position data hits a new high, which is often the short-term high of BTC
At 6 pm on July 29, according to Coinglass data, the total Bitcoin contract holdings on the entire network reached $39.46 billion, a record high. Just three hours later, BTC broke through $70,000 and began to fall sharply. Contract data to a certain extent represents the market's view on the future market trend. The record high contract data means that the market is too consistent in the short term and is extremely optimistic about BTC's short-term trend, and continues to increase leverage, so it often ushered in a callback to clean up the chips and move forward lightly.
On March 4, March 13, March 29, and June 7, 2024, its BTC contract data all hit data highs on the same day. If you compare it with the BTC price on the same day, you can clearly see that it was at the price high.
Ethereum spot ETF net inflows are less than Grayscale outflows
After the BTC spot ETF was approved, the BTC price also experienced a period of decline. History also happened on Ethereum. Just when the market thought that its inflow data would be bleak due to the lack of support for staking income, it attracted $1.183 billion in capital inflows in its first week of launch. However, Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) had an outflow of $1.513 billion, which directly led to an overall net outflow of $338 million for its Ethereum ETF spot after the data was included. The price of ETH also rose from $2,800 to $3,562, and fell slightly to around $3,300.Mt.Gox compensation has started, huge selling pressure has caused market concerns
On July 24, Mt.Gox also transferred 61,558.9 BTC (about 3.894 billion U.S. dollars) to the trading platform for compensation distribution. The 51,342.8 BTC (3.218 billion U.S. dollars) that entered Bitbank, SBI VC Trade, and Kraken have completed the distribution of compensation to creditors.
Later that day, Bitstamp also began distributing 10,200 BTC, or about $676 million, to Mt.Gox creditors. The next day, some users claimed to have received their compensation.
Although most users who passively lock their positions will receive less coins, as the price of BTC has continued to soar over the past decade, there is a high probability that a considerable number of users will still choose to sell for profit after suddenly receiving such a huge compensation.
This morning, Mt.Gox transferred 0.02 BTC to a newly created address, which may be a transfer test, and will continue to pay compensation. It can be expected that before the compensation is completely completed, the market will still be negatively affected by its huge selling pressure.
Huge transfers from the U.S. Department of Justice address are a escrow or sell-off mystery
On July 28, Trump gave a speech at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference, saying that if elected president, the United States will not sell (100% retention) any Bitcoin and will use it as a strategic Bitcoin reserve. The BTC Trump referred to is the tens of thousands of BTC that the government confiscated from the Silk Road.
Recently, Arkham Intelligence’s blockchain data showed that a wallet marked as the US Government: Silk Road Justice Department transferred 29,800 BTC to a new address. Subsequently, the address forwarded 19,800 BTC and 10,000 BTC to two different addresses.
Arkham analysts predict that one of the transfers of 10,000 BTC worth $670 million was a deposit to an institutional custodian or service. James Seyffart, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, speculated that the transfer may be a wallet consolidation to hold custody of the seized Bitcoin.
So far, market participants have different opinions on whether these deposited BTC are being held in custody or sold, but the negative impact on the market is still in effect.
3. Forecast of future market trends
QCP Capital believes that despite the volatility of Bitcoin prices during Trump's Bitcoin conference speech, the market did not fluctuate as much as expected. Bitcoin prices remained between $67,000 and $70,000, and volatility dropped significantly. Trump's speech echoed industry expectations, but the market may need a bigger catalyst for a major breakthrough. This catalyst may come when the US election is approaching, when promises and policies are clearer. Despite Trump's optimistic remarks, Bitcoin failed to break through its all-time high, so Bitcoin may continue to trade in a range.
Rich Rosenblum, co-CEO and co-founder of crypto market maker GSR, said that every time Bitcoin rises, there is controversy over whether the altcoin season has arrived, but he believes that altcoins will make a comeback and will return strongly.
Raoul Pal, former Goldman Sachs executive and founder of macro research firm Real Vision, said Bitcoin is about to break out of a huge cup-and-handle pattern and enter a banana range.
Valentin Fournier, chief analyst at digital asset research firm BRN, said that the recent behavior of miners shows that they are confident in the long-term value of Bitcoin. Given this accumulation behavior, a series of strong catalysts indicate that Bitcoin will usher in a strong rise to new highs.
10x Research believes that the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on August 1 and the CPI report on August 14 will be crucial. Bitcoin is expected to eventually break new highs, but Bitcoin may need "macro" help.
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When exploring the vast world of investment, please keep in mind that the road of investment is full of opportunities, but also hidden risks. Only by rational evaluation and cautious progress can we move forward steadily in the ever-changing market and let the ship of wealth ride the wind and waves and sail to a more glorious shore.
