As mentioned above, you cannot buy at the bottom in a bear market and hold any altcoins for a long time. The best buying position should be at the beginning of a bull market.
So, how to judge the early stage of a bull market? There are three main aspects: liquidity, technical analysis, and overall perception.
1. Liquidity: Liquidity is not a leading indicator of the market. The problem of insufficient liquidity can be solved by pulling the market. Sufficient market liquidity is the premise for technical indicators to truly reflect the real situation of the market. For example, Tugou with a daily trading volume of 50,000 U and Dabing with a daily trading volume of 500 million U, which one can better reflect the real situation? The answer is self-evident. The continuous abundance of liquidity is the premise for supporting the bull market.
The second is technical analysis. Follow the market's own operating rules, do not dominate the market with your own ideas, and follow the trend. This is the premise for a qualified trader to make stable profits. From July to November 2021 and from January to March 2023, it is clear from the K-line that the trend has moved out of the right side, but there are still many people who go against the trend and go bankrupt by shorting. For me, the K-line judges the trend of the market mainly through the shape trend and whether the large level breaks through the transaction concentration area. Once the shape trend is good and the key position is really broken, shorting must not be allowed. At this time, the opportunity for the cottage is to wait for a callback to build a position in the cottage.
The third is the cycle: everything has a cycle. There is no market that will always rise, and there is no market that will always fall. If it falls for too long, the possibility of a bull market will increase significantly; if it rises for too long, it will also face a correction.
Fourth, the overall perception: such as the on-chain gas fee, the market value of the stablecoin, and whether there is a continuous external environment that encourages "leeks" to join the circle.
Judging the trend is crucial, and it is the first step for us to make money. If the first step is wrong, all the steps will be wrong. The judgment of good or bad liquidity, technical analysis, cycle judgment, and overall perception will be further explained later.
