#比特币大会 #美国PCE通胀放缓 #山寨季何时到来？
Fed Forecast: July meeting may disappoint doves, Powell will only give a preliminary hint of September rate cut
Now many places are bragging about the Fed's rate cut
Many people subconsciously believe that rate cuts can give US stocks the momentum to continue to rise
In fact, whether US stocks can rise depends on the extent of rate cuts.
The US dollar is the world currency. The Fed's policy not only affects the flow of US dollars in China, but also affects the flow of US dollars in the world.
When the US stock market is high, if the rate cut is too low, it will cause funds to flow out of the US stock market to other parts of the world.
Only by significantly cutting interest rates can a large amount of funds be driven to embrace risky assets.
However, this situation is only possible when a serious recession or financial risk event occurs in the United States.
A small rate cut is likely to cause a small correction in the US stock market or a rebalancing of the internal structure under volatile conditions.
The current trend of the US stock market is an AI suffocating bull that continues to rise against the interest rate hike. Once the AI narrative fails, the situation will reverse.
