In the next month, a very good market will start, and there will be many good opportunities.
Old fans all know that the previous long-term trend analysis in July pointed out that it was in a period of weak decline and was nearing its end. Now it is at the turning point of two trend markets.
【1】Review the previous trend first
The trend of the previous market is in line with the expected analysis, 1) BTC fell weakly 2) altcoins fell sharply. My personal operation was to short BTC, ETH, and PEPE with 2 layers of positions. The profit was 50%. The overall position increase was 10%. Of course, it is far worse than most permanent profit teachers.
【 2 】 About the next market outlook
The next market will be an upward trend, and the overall magnitude will be inferior to the bull market in January this year. However, there will still be currencies with good gains. The logic of this round of market is 1) The decline has lasted long enough and has been enough. If the market falls too much, it will rise, and if it rises too much, it will fall. It’s nothing more than time and magnitude. In the bull market, most of the copycats actually reached the top in March. It has been falling for more than half a year. The decline is at least more than 50%. Although the decline of BTC is not large. But the overall market conditions are indeed very bad. 2) BTC halving market expectations. 3) Stop raising interest rates and start expectations of lowering interest rates. The Federal Reserve is likely to stop raising interest rates this year and may start lowering interest rates next year.
【3】Important question: Will a big bull market begin?
My answer is no:
1) There is a broad consensus on BTC’s 4-year bull market. The timing may be adjusted, but the gap is too big now. 2) Because this round of market speculation is based on expectations. The Federal Reserve did not actually cut interest rates. However, when and how this market will end requires judgment based on the specific capital situation, market environment, and external environment at the time.
【 4 】 How to operate now
In fact, everyone has different trading methods and operation methods. I can only talk about my own. I divide the coins and positions I want to buy, such as OP buying 10,000 U, into 244. 20% has been bought. The second 40%, if there is a sharp drop, I will buy it. If there is no sharp drop, I will wait for a strong structure to buy. The third party 40% will be bought if there is a second sharp drop (the probability is very low) or a bull market indicator with a very high certainty.
【 5 】 Type 1: High market value, low risk, low return
The risks and returns here are for other coins, not really low risk. Target: BTC, ETH, OP, ARB In this type of target, the main return is from market appreciation. BTC is undoubtedly the most certain. If there is no particularly good choice, it is also a good idea to buy BTC and ETH without thinking. OP and ARB are essentially pursuing higher returns than BTC while enjoying lower risks. Now their market capitalization is around 1 billion US dollars. ARB is the leader of the ecosystem, and its ecosystem and TVL are far ahead of other layer2s. OP is now telling the story of the super chain. For public chains, the market capitalizations of Sol, Matic, and AVAX are 7.5, 4.8, and 3.3 billion US dollars, respectively. The FDV of OP and ARB is relatively high, which may become the view of some people who are not optimistic. However, for mid-term speculation, the market capitalization + unlocking volume in the next three months has always been used for measurement. So when the Cancun upgrade comes, I will expect arb/op to at least reach the market capitalization of AVAX.
【 6 】 Category 2: Medium market value, medium risk, medium return
For me, the focus of research is to find the second category. Although the first category has a large position, there are very few targets. So it basically does not take much time. This category is my favorite.
【 7 】 Sections and research results
But the frustrating thing is that we haven’t found enough targets for this market research. Except for a few OP, ARB, ArkM, and Unibot that we must buy, most of them are put into the candidate pool. If there is a signal, such as when the main force buys, we will buy them.
1) Layer2 layer is naturally the focus. However, most layer2s have not issued coins. Except for op/arb, which have been placed in the first category, the remaining MNT market value is too large. Although metis will cause trouble, it is an old project, and the ecological project has not made much progress after running for so many years, so it is selected as a project.
2) Binance launch #Binance
[8] Binance Launch is my favorite project for a simple reason:
1) Naturally famous and attracting financial attention
2) Binance has screened and the quality is acceptable
3) Binance has strong control, although hook, edu, etc. have been criticized as internal coins this year. But don’t forget that in the last bear market, many projects launched by Binance were also criticized at the beginning, but later many of them rose sharply in the bull market.
Among the specific targets: ARKM is the first target I chose. It is the leader in the data track, and its products are good. I use it frequently. The two projects EDU and ID each have their own advantages and disadvantages, and of course there are many people who criticize them. In the on-chain analysis, it was found that the chips are concentrated in the hands of the project parties. The project parties are mainly responsible for pulling up the market. So I included them in the selection pool.
The remaining launchpool projects are #Sei, #Sui, #Pendle, #cyber, #RDNT, and #MAV. Among them, Pendle, RDNT, and MAV are included in the candidate pool.#Cyberhas been hyped, so it is excluded.
Sei/Sui’s circulating market capitalization is relatively large, and it is not easy to pull the price of a large market capitalization. In addition, it seems that its reputation is not very good, and Sui has to be unlocked every month. So it is ruled out. Pendle’s product is quite interesting, and its circulating market capitalization is also okay at 100 million US dollars. RDNT is a good product, and it is also the concept coin of layerzero, but it is quite powerful in the bull market. MAV product is also innovative, and the data is also quite good. The circulating market capitalization is also very low. But the project party seems to be a bit of a dog, and he cashed out a lot of tokens when launching the launchpool. So it can only enter the selection pool.
4) ARB/OP ecosystem
There are many good projects in the ARB ecosystem, but they were all hyped up during the last ARB airdrop. The market has always been accustomed to hyping up new projects rather than old ones, such as Magic, grail, rdnt, and gmx. There are not many projects in Op’s ecosystem that can compete, and when Op skyrocketed a few days ago, its ecosystem did not react much, and the funds did not seem to recognize its ecosystem.
5) layerzero, zksync, starknet ecosystem
These three guys have been rumored to be issuing coins and have been pushing the market, mainly in the PUA circle. For secondary investment, I mainly study the situation of the ecosystem and the leaders, and keep paying attention to the#layerzeroecosystem. The main projects are stg, hft, and rdnt. I have included#STGin the candidate pool. The#zksyncecosystem is really average. Most of the top 10 TVL projects are dex, and most of them are copied functions. Mav is also in it, which is considered to be in the candidate pool. There is also iZUMi, which is deployed on multiple chains. This is also an old project, and the product is quite creative. But the data is average. The#Starknetecosystem is also average. Starknet is relatively strong in gamefi, and I haven’t studied it much. I don’t like other projects.
6) The Tel Bot bot track is quite interesting
August was the hottest time for it. Unfortunately, the market was in a down cycle. As a trading discipline, I could not buy it. Now the bot track has pulled back as a whole. I think it has more potential than that. I hope to get a good price.#UNIBOTis the leader of the track, and it is definitely a must-buy. The market value is now around 70 million US dollars. And it has not been listed on any first-tier exchange. I haven't seen any other projects that make me excited. But many bot projects are under development, and some may emerge later.
