The BTC rate today immediately broke through the level of $69,000. A very important volumetric and psychological (ATH of the previous cycle) level. Now the price has gone lower. But continues to remain above the downtrend since the current ATH on March 14. Staying above this trend is, let us remind you, the probability of BTC exiting the already 135-day (!) range.
This growth forces us to reconsider local tensions. According to the previous version of the anxiety level, a decrease was predicted from July 22. We expected up to $64,120, but in the end the decrease reached $63,456. And then, according to the forecast, after the correction, we expected it to grow to a maximum of $67,800. As a result, the growth broke through this resistance and the price went to the current high of $69,399.
The correction and rebound forecast worked, but the excitement was interpreted incorrectly. And that means the goal is maximum growth. As a result, the correction forecast from $67,800 no longer worked. Today's growth with the rewriting of the high on July 22 forces us to change our alignment: instead of the high in wave 5, we should reorient ourselves to the fact that it was only a high in wave 3. And the decline that followed after July 22 was not a corrective wave A in a downward structure. And corrective wave 4 within the ongoing upward structure.
Accordingly, the current growth is the growth in wave 5. Yesterday’s daily candle closed bullish, forming the “Morning Star” pattern, the likelihood of which was indicated in the last review. Emphasizing that on the daily TF of BTC it extremely rarely does NOT work out.
We now see the maximum high of this wave in the area of the volume level of $72,046 (with a possible squeeze a little higher to collect liquidity behind the high on June 7) and the global trend currently passing there (indicated by a dotted line).
On the four-hour time frame, the trend reversal indicator indicates that it is time to correct. BUT if there are loud statements from Donald Trump today at Bitcoin 2024 (at 22:00 Kyiv time and Moscow time / 00:00 new day Astana time) - then the euphoria of the crowd may be about a new ATH. It’s not that far away ($73,777).
So far, it looks like Trump's speech may be the culmination of growth and a "sell on the news" event. So that then, after the correction, we can talk about a large PG&P on the spring-summer#BTCchart. We'll see tonight. The bubble of expectations for Trump's speech is not so big, but quite specific - the expectation that he will support the idea of creating a US BTC reserve (written in detail yesterday).
