Fed Balance Shrinks by $15.8 Billion in

One Week

♠️Fed Chair Powell:

- Recent macroeconomic data suggests a disinflationary trend, which is the desired outcome.

♠️Fed Governor Daly:

- Wants to see a sustained decline in inflation before voting for a rate cut.

♠️Fed Governor Quarles:

- There have been several months of good inflation data, the fight is still ongoing, but there is growing confidence in the disinflation process.

♠️Bloomberg:

- The Fed is preparing for a rate cut in September as Chair Powell's focus shifts to the labor market.

♠️IMF:

- The Fed should not cut rates until the end of 2024. Taxes should be raised to slow the growth of US debt.

Market Expectations (Fed Rate):

· July 31: Pause.

· September 18: Cut by 25 bps to 5.00-5.25%.

· November 7: Cut by 25 bps to 4.75-5.00%.

· December 18: Cut by 25 bps to 4.50-4.75%.

· January 29, 2025: Pause.