Current market forecast:

Taking three months as the dimension, the market is bound to fall, because it is currently an obvious bottoming market; taking one month as the dimension, the market may not fall. In the absence of sudden negative factors, the decline of the market must be a spiral decline, interspersed with various types of copycat markets (most of which are unpredictable). The spiral decline is due to the fact that there are many bottom-fishing players in the spot party and many long and short players in the Heyue party, which affect the market overnight.

Let me talk about two issues that everyone is concerned about recently:

1. What is the basis for the expected rebound in October?

There was no Fed meeting, meeting minutes, or wedge paper in October, and no major negative news. It was a short buffer period. The rebound was in preparation for the sharp drop in November and early December. Looking at the operation of the K-line, the 2-day line pullback was also close to this time point. Since the trend turned bearish in mid-July, the monthly line has closed three consecutive negatives. If there is no oversold rebound in October, more people will choose to leave the market, and no one will play. But its rebound is very limited, and it is impossible to rebound throughout the month. It will not rise continuously for at most 2 weeks. Above 28150 is still the biggest hurdle.

2. Where will be the lowest point before the bull market?

I don’t recommend guessing the bottom, it doesn’t make much sense, veterans usually die from bottom-fishing and top-chasing. Generally, the lowest point before a bull market is the lowest point of a deep bear market. From November last year to early July this year, Bitcoin rose by 100%. If it falls back deeply, it is likely to bottom out again at a ratio of 1:1. Therefore, we can only refer to last year’s lowest point of 15,600. Don’t fall to 12,000, 10,000, or 8,600. 12,000 is a reservation, and it depends on how the weekly and monthly lines go at the end of the year.

As long as the index holds between 18,000 and 20,000 at the end of the year, the market will likely rise to 6,000 points at most in the first half of next year. It will certainly not reach last year's lowest point, because there may be a sharp rise of 5,000 points in January and February.