Currently, Bitcoin continues to rebound this week, and the volatility is still relatively large. On the evening of the 16th, Bitcoin had a pullback of about 2,000 US dollars, and soon recovered all yesterday. The short-term market fluctuations are still relatively frequent. Today we will sort out and analyze the short-term, medium-term and long-term trends. There are two aspects that affect the trend of the currency circle: ① News, there are both negative and positive news recently, and the short-term trend has a relatively large fluctuation. ② Technical aspect, from the perspective of the market's own trend law, it has its own operating law. Then we combine these two aspects to analyze the current trend in the recent period of time.
1. News
There are three major events that have had a significant impact on the trend of the cryptocurrency market recently: ① The compensation paid by the Mentougou Exchange caused a selling pressure on the market. ② The German government department sold off. ③ The assassination of Trump.
Bitcoin started to fall from $72,000 in June, and the lowest price was $53,600. The main reasons were the two reasons mentioned above. One was the Mentougou incident, and the other was the German government selling Bitcoin to the market. In addition, the existing funds in the market knew that Mentougou would start to pay compensation in July, and the German government was also selling Bitcoin. Some funds followed suit and sold in advance. In this way, the market resonance formed a round of callback close to $20,000.
Trump was assassinated. The US election in November is imminent. Everyone is calling for Trump. If Trump is elected as the US president, it will be a positive for the market. Trump almost had his head blown off a few days ago. It is predicted that there will be sympathy votes in his campaign, which greatly increases the probability of his election success. Everyone thinks that Trump's election in November next year is almost a foregone conclusion. In addition, the Bitcoin Conference will be held in the United States from July 25 to July 27 next week. It has been confirmed that Trump will attend, which is also a major event in the currency circle. The Bitcoin Conference will start in about a week. Judging from the reaction of the capital market to good news, it generally does not start to fall so long in advance. I also made it very clear that although Bitcoin had a big shock yesterday, it fell by at most $2,000 to $62,000, but in the situation of long and short interweaving, Bitcoin will still maintain a shocking upward trend. The next pressure level is in the range of $67,000 to $69,000.
2. The technical aspects and the operating rules of the market itself.
When the market reaches a certain size and there are enough participants and funds, the market will have its own vitality. This law refers to a long-term trend cycle. The news, including some sudden positive or negative news, will only affect the short-term, at most the medium-term trend, and the long-term cycle trend will not be changed. As for the general direction goal, we have a short-term market sudden event, which will cause market fluctuations, and we will not be affected. Previously, Bitcoin fell below 60,000 and even fell to 53,300 US dollars. We told everyone in the community that the bull market has not ended and the second half of the bull market will still come. On July 5, when Bitcoin fell to a minimum of more than 53,000 US dollars, we told everyone in the community that day that Bitcoin's retaliatory rebound would come soon, and the rebound would be at least more than 10%, or even 20%. Now let's see that from July 5 to now, in thirteen days, less than two weeks, Bitcoin has risen from 53,000 US dollars to a maximum of 66,000 US dollars yesterday, which has exceeded 20%. This is what we have been saying. Sudden news events can only affect short-term trends. In the long run, the market will still return to its regular cycle. No matter how the short-term fluctuations occur, they will inevitably obey the long-term trend.
Currently, Bitcoin continues to rebound this week, and the volatility is still relatively large. On the evening of the 16th, Bitcoin had a pullback of about 2,000 US dollars, and soon recovered all yesterday. The short-term market fluctuations are still relatively frequent. Today we will sort out and analyze the short-term, medium-term and long-term trends. There are two aspects that affect the trend of the currency circle: ① News, there are both negative and positive news recently, and the short-term trend has a relatively large fluctuation. ② Technical aspect, from the perspective of the market's own trend law, it has its own operating law. Then we combine these two aspects to analyze the current trend in the recent period of time.
To summarize the future market trend: With the entry of traditional financial capital in this bull market, the operation difficulty has increased. After all, the main force of cutting leeks has become Wall Street capital. Ordinary investors have fewer and fewer opportunities to make money simply in the bull market as in the past. There is no other shortcut in the future. We can only improve our cognition, learn the correct investment method, and give up the idea of relying on luck. At present, the selling of German law enforcement agencies has come to an end, and the selling pressure in Mentougou will continue for a while, and it will jump out from time to time to interfere with the market trend. At present, it is still maintaining a large box shock of 60,000-70,000 US dollars. However, as time goes by, it is beneficial to the bulls, and the next comprehensive outbreak can still be expected.
