The BTC rate today tested the level of $66,135 and for now we expect that this is a local high. Let us recall that they wrote on July 15: “The daily structure of the candles suggests continued growth until July 17-19.” We've arrived at the first date.
If we consider the movement in waves since July 5, then we can assume the end of the third wave. The targets of the fourth corrective wave are the range of $59,335-$62,987. Depending on the strength of sellers and the reaction of buyers to the decline.
The EMA of the 50 day TF is now at the upper limit of the range. The ideal for a bullish picture would be to move lower, but still close the daily candles above this moving average.
We remember about the large gap on the BTC futures chart on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The range is almost $3,000 (!), $57,880-60,840.
To close it, it is not necessary to reach $57,880 on spot. But on the CME, it would be important to fill this void for further growth. Although this is not a dogma and the gap can be closed later when the trend changes. Plus, it’s worth remembering that 10% of gaps are not closed at all. But in the current case, this is an ultra-optimistic scenario even for a bull market.
The local trend remains upward for now. To say that the third wave is completed, you need to wait for confirmation of his change. He's not there yet. You need, for example, a bearish close of today's daily candle. Bearish pin bar. If this or other confirmations are not available, growth may continue on July 18-19, as was written. But to say that the high could be installed today is the importance of the volumetric and mirror level of $65,892. So far, the sellers' reaction to it has been expressive.
If growth continues, an important target for the bulls is the volume level of $68,232. Firstly, there is also a downtrend trend nearby since March 14 (an important resistance on the way to the new ATH). Secondly, there is a Fibonacci level of 0.786 nearby (from the high of June 7 to the low of July 5) and as long as the price remains above the Fibonacci level of 0.618 (rate of $64,982), a move to the next level is relevant.
Current goals for today in our indicator with a multiplier:
For bulls (and risky bears with limit orders):
- 67 167$,
- 69 504$.
For risky bears (and bulls with limit orders):
- $60,010 (and only if $64,757 is broken),
There is no point in considering others yet, because the next closest level for today is $55,263. There are no news reasons or technical reasons to go there yet.