In the past two years, BTC has completed a bull-bear transition from $69,000 to $15,500. In addition to the inevitable cyclical factors, the biggest pressure is the pressure from regulators, but it is clear that the crypto market has benefited from this and is moving towards the "mainstream path". Although this road is still full of thorns and bumps, we can already see a bright future.
As the US debt hits new highs, more and more "excess wealth" is in urgent need of finding more "reservoirs" for savings. (This is the fundamental reason why BTC prices are hitting new highs every cycle, and the computing power cost is just a specific manifestation of the "operating rules.") This makes many investors' idea of "waiting" for prices to drop before buying come to naught. The past time in 2023 can be said to be full of crises and opportunities. Affected by the aftermath of the FTX crash, it has been silent in the "haze" since the beginning of 23 years, but the subsequent US banking crisis has brought vitality to the entire crypto market again.
This can be said to be a landmark event. The emergence of the banking crisis has added or established the label of "resisting traditional financial risks" to the "attributes" column of cryptocurrencies. The subsequent Ethereum Shanghai upgrade has given the crypto market a shot in the arm, not only achieving an increase in transaction speed and a reduction in fees, but also opening up new horizons for crypto technology, among which the ZK-Sync zero-knowledge proof technology is even more praised. The sudden entry of BlackRock is even more epoch-making. While raising the level of the crypto market, it has greatly broadened the development space of the crypto market, and has brought the sluggish and dying crypto industry onto the mainstream track.
During this period, despite the continuous interest rate hikes and regulation, BTC once rose above $31,500. On September 1, the SEC again postponed the BTC spot ETF applications of all parties, resulting in the withdrawal of short-term bullish funds, and mainstream currencies such as BTC and ETH fell. In a sense, this may be the end of a cycle.
To be honest, in the last wave of Grayscale's victory over the SEC, the market did not reach our expected price, which was beyond our expectations, but what was in line with our expectations was that the "double top market" had been formed quickly. Similar market trends have appeared many times in historical trends, and without exception, they all mean the end of an upward cycle. It is manifested in that after several rounds of "step-down", a new bottom is explored.
We have emphasized many times that the current crypto market is no longer "rising and falling by nature" like in the past, but is tending to be "market-oriented", or more precisely, the transition stage from "copycat market to mainstream market". This stage is very "sensitive" because a new market structure is being established, and any news is enough to shake the stability of the entire market. Moreover, there are signs that the injection of capital is not only aimed at the crypto derivatives market, but they are using the power they can control to change the entire crypto business architecture, from stablecoins to exchanges to custodians... This is why Binance, which accounts for half of the global crypto transactions, only accounts for 8% of the US crypto market but has been repeatedly targeted. (Except for the Binance crisis, the crypto market has been almost smooth all the way) The sensitive market is "fickle", and the "interest rate hike expectations" from September 21 are constantly decreasing and several Ethereum futures ETFs that will be approved in early October may bring new vitality to the market.
We know that the number of BTC held by long-term holders is close to 15 million, accounting for about 77% of the circulation. This data has experienced several "explosive" growths in the past 23 years. The closest price is around US$26,000, forming a strong support point here.
It is worth noting that compared with the long-term holding of BTC, ETH is more volatile or polarized. Judging from the long-short ratio of Ethereum options due for delivery on September 1, a large number of put options appeared in the range of $1,500 to $1,600. What is more critical is that these people "insist on holding", which may cause the short-term market to continue to be weak or consolidating.
It is precisely because of the existence of firm holders and more investors who are in a state of continuous wait-and-see that Coin Thunder believes that since the rise has not met expectations, the decline may not necessarily break a new low. The next crypto market may continue in a "wave-like" manner for a period of time before more favorable factors appear, and the latest peak of the rise may appear in late September or early October. I hope everyone will not be hesitant because of the temporary decline, because the remaining 23 years is likely to be "the darkness before dawn." #BTC #美联储是否加息？
