Yesterday evening (29Aug 10:00pm UTC+8), the United States announced that JOLTs job vacancies in July recorded 8.827 million people, significantly lower than the market expectation of 9.465 million, exacerbating expectations of weak non-farm employment data on Friday; the consumer confidence index also fell to 106.1, lower than the expected 116, showing the decline in economic momentum. After the data was released, the market increased its bets on the Federal Reserve suspending interest rate hikes in September, while lowering expectations of resuming interest rate hikes in November. U.S. bond yields fell 10 basis points across the board to a two-week low. The policy-sensitive two-year U.S. bond yield once fell 16 basis points from the day's high, rebounding slightly after breaking through the 5.0% and 4.9% levels. Back above 4.9%.
Although the narrative of the crypto community was slightly weak some time ago, resulting in a lack of price growth, Grayscale won the lawsuit last night, overturning the SEC's decision to block the launch of the Grayscale ETF. BTC briefly broke through $28,000 (+8%), ETH was also actively challenging the 1,750 mark (+6.1%), the short-term and medium-term IV of the options market rose sharply, BTC ATM rose 14% that week, and rose 6.21% at the end of the month, and the entire community ushered in a nearly two-hour carnival.
Regarding the outcome of the lawsuit, the court stated that "(SEC)'s) rejection of Grayscale's proposal was arbitrary and capricious because the SEC failed to explain the different treatment of similar products." On October 12 last year, Grayscale filed an opening brief on the SEC's rejection of its application for Bitcoin Spot ETF, pointing out that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission failed to prove why there was a completely different approach to the approval of BTC futures ETFs and spot ETFs, which violated the most basic requirements of the U.S. Administrative Procedure Act.
James Seyffart, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg, said on Twitter that Grayscale's victory in the lawsuit does not mean that GBTC can be freely converted into an ETF, but it has taken the conversion one step further. He also mentioned that the SEC can file an appeal for a full hearing within 45 days, which means that the case will be heard by all (17) judges in the court, rather than an appeal panel consisting of only three judges as in the initial ruling this time.
After a short-term carnival, the price of BTC fell slightly from the high point of 28,000 to around 27,500. The front-end implied volatility also gave up more than half of the increase, but it was still in the high percentile (75%) range in the past month as a whole, and the curve turned from steep to flat. On the other hand, the market completely digested the positive sentiment brought by the news overnight. The front-end IV returned to the level of the previous day, and the far-end volatility even continued yesterday's decline, with a drop of about 1-2%.
Grayscale's victory is undoubtedly a major victory for digital currency regulation. In terms of trading, we can see that this wave of pull-ups has refocused the market's attention on the upward space of BTC/ETH. A large number of Call Spread transactions have led to a significant decline in the P/C Ratio, but there is no obvious gap in the proportion of active buying and selling. Under this market situation, large traders have shown a relatively balanced situation to the market. In fact, the digital currency market is still in a state of liquidity shortage, and the narrative environment has not undergone a decisive change that can attract a large number of new funds to enter the market. The relatively large fluctuations in recent times have often brought a short-term increase in trading volume to the market, but lacked the subsequent impetus to continue the trend. The market may be waiting for the overall environment to become clearer, so as to bring greater potential energy to the market activity.
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