80 days after Bitcoin halving: Has it fallen to the right place! ?

On the 80th day after this Bitcoin halving, the price of BTC reached 57,000 US dollars, with a daily increase of 3%, ushering in a rebound after the second bottoming out, which can be said to have brought some bullish sentiment to the market.

From the figure, it is not difficult to see that the so-called potential pull-up after halving has always existed, and the big drop after halving is indeed happening, and the decline is close to the expected range of 30%. From the perspective of the currency price alone, such a retracement is actually in place, and the recent bad news has been frequent, whether it is Mentougou or Germany selling coins, it now seems to be a possibility for the market to control expectations.

So let us review the recent macro level again. Whether it is the slowdown in the inflow of institutional purchases or the lack of liquidity in the market, the macro expectations are very weak. According to the recently released interest rate hike path dot plot, Federal Reserve officials predict that the median federal funds rate will drop to 5.1 by the end of the year, which means that the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year will be postponed, and it may also be a change from 2 to 1, less than the previously predicted 2 times.

Under the influence of many negative news, Bitcoin has only reached 5.4w USD in the short term, and this position is only one step away from the bottom of 4.9-5.1 as we said. It is impossible to predict how long it will take to digest the selling pressure, but the Fed's interest rate cut in the future is definitely fundamental, that is to say, it is certain, it is just a matter of expectation.

From the current market point of view, the increase in the price of the currency is basically dominated by the information side. A short-term data can fluctuate up and down by more than 5 points, which also reflects the uncertainty of the long and short positions of funds from the side. The most direct improvement is actually to continue a positive and complete the entry of macro liquidity, and then the biggest one. #BTC下跌分析 #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ $BTC $ETH $BNB