Grayscale applied N times to convert its GBTC into a real spot ETF, but was rejected by the SEC. GBTC cannot be redeemed, so there has always been a price difference. At its peak, the price difference was +40% (the peak of the bull market), and at its most desperate, the price difference reached -45% (the lowest point in the industry). If it becomes a spot ETF, its price will strictly track BTC, because its redemption and position adjustment will be smooth. The reasons given by the SEC are usually that BTC and exchanges are easy to manipulate, or other vague reasons, but the SEC has approved several BTC futures ETFs, such as BITO, and other countries have also approved several BTC spot ETFs, such as Canada. Therefore, the only thing missing now is a BTC spot ETF in the United States.
Grayscale sued the SEC in anger. Why did it only approve futures ETFs and not spot ETFs? As a result, the SEC lost the case. The judgment was made by the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, which is generally considered to be second only to the US Supreme Court. Now the appeal period has long passed. The reason why the SEC lost the case is nothing more than other things, that is, futures ETFs are more like short-term speculation than futures ETFs. It can be understood that if an institution configures a spot ETF, in theory it is truly investing and holding BTC, but it is just entrusted to the ETF manager. If it only configures a futures ETF, not to mention the extremely high fees, a series of cumbersome operations are also difficult to accept. Or to put it this way, fixed investment in BTC is fixed investment in real BTC, who would invest in BTC perpetual contracts? Therefore, Grayscale believes that after the SEC approved the futures ETF, the SEC's reason for spot ETFs, that is, it is easy to be manipulated, is not actually valid! But then again, the SEC's loss = the SEC must give a clear reason, but the SEC's loss ≠ the SEC will definitely approve the Bitcoin spot ETF. So, the key is to see how the SEC writes it? Can it withstand the pressure from multiple parties? If they still firmly refuse, the reason given must be a heavy bomb for the market. In addition, there is another question: will there be a situation where someone approves and someone does not approve? No matter which one, whether it is approved by Grayscale or BlackRock, although the probability of approval for BlackRock is the highest, after all, from the perspective of BlackRock's past application success rate, this is beyond doubt. From my personal point of view, as long as the time comes, the entire market may follow the level of good news realization and bad news, that is, approval will lead to a drop, and rejection will lead to a sharp drop. This is also in line with the image law that the market has given us in the past.
However, in the long run, the approval must be a new milestone for the entire crypto market. After all, it provides a simpler way for traditional funds to configure BTC, without registering Coinbase or downloading BTC wallets. For Crypto, the industry does not need a large influx of traditional funds, let alone rushing in. Even if these funds are only used for defensive configuration of 1% of the positions, it is a very strong positive capital inflow for the BTC market!
Back to the market.
1D, there are many big cycle market trends. The daily line enters the trading intensive area, and there is a risk of aggravation of the divergence between long and short positions. During the operation, do not hold a heavy position. If you are holding a position, continue to hold it, and if you are shorting a position, refer to the small cycle point.
1H, the market is stable and orderly upward, that is, shock adjustment-upward-shocking-shocking adjustment-upward. At present, the short-term is still in shock. It is recommended to pay attention to the start signal and mainly operate long orders. The point refers to the low point of the small cycle decline, 44300. The target is 44488/45000. There is a small probability that the market will fall below the support, go down deeply, and the support will turn into pressure, so short-term operations are required.
