Many people are waiting for the arrival of the bull market, and some people have even been standing on the top of the mountain, enjoying the cool breeze and waiting for more than two years!

If we think back to the last cycle, you will find that the prices of many altcoins (currencies other than Bitcoin) have increased by 10 times, 100 times, 200 times, or even more. At present, most of them have lost 90–99% of their valuations.

So, will a new bull market come again? Is now the best time for us to buy altcoins?

Before determining the above issues, we need to first determine some important factors about the crypto market itself, such as sentiment indicators, fundamentals, and price trends.

1. Sentiment Indicators

There are currently some commonly used data indicators that can help us understand the current sentiment of the market, such as the Fear and Greed Index that everyone may often pay attention to, as shown in the figure below.

Moreover, it is easy for us to track and discover market sentiment intuitively through social media. For example, on social media, if you find that the number of views on YouTube videos about cryptocurrencies has dropped by 80-90%, or the number of Google searches (search index) has dropped significantly, or the overall participation in related topics on X has dropped to a bear market low level, then this means that those who are still in the market are basically survivors, and most people have actually left, because these people have completely worn out their mentality after two years of bear market, resulting in more and more people leaving, and this situation has repeatedly occurred in the bear market cycle.

2. Fundamental analysis

Many people would say that a bear market is the best time to learn and discover outstanding projects with potential. Because of the long bear market, many fraudulent projects have been eliminated from the market, while good projects are constantly developing. Take Ethereum, which is the most familiar to everyone, for example. It was during this bear market cycle that Ethereum completed a very important upgrade and turned to PoS, and a futures-based Ethereum ETF was born in the market.

But such an important upgrade cannot directly lead to the arrival of a bull market. Why? Because every rebound in the crypto market will be sold off. As we mentioned in the sentiment indicator above, many people have experienced a long bear market and have worn out their mentality. They want to exit the market, and these people often do not believe that the market has entered a new bull market cycle.

Only when the market really changes will these people have the opportunity to pay attention again and return to the market. When they rush in again at this stage, because they have been away from the market for too long, they not only need to watch the market, but also need to start again to make up for all the basic knowledge they have missed. As a result, these people often fail to seize the short-lived big opportunities in the bull market, and may even stand on the top of the mountain and blow the wind again, falling into a new cycle.

In order to avoid such an outcome, my personal suggestion is that you can temporarily withdraw from this field during the bear market, but at least keep some BTC in your wallet so that you can still have a thought. Then, when you have nothing to do, read the articles of Hualihuawai to keep paying attention to this field.

In addition to paying attention to various true and false news, your own analysis and judgment of the fundamentals of the field may be more important.

3. Price Trends

A few days ago, a friend in the community told me that the experts often start to ambush some potential currencies in the core narrative before the bull market starts, and they can basically see the trend after the first wave of the horizontal market starts, so that they can obtain objective returns during the bull market. However, pure leeks are often still changing positions after the bull market is over, and as a result, they still can't figure out the direction after changing positions.

So, this is why it is very important to position yourself at the early stages, when you start to watch the price action.

From the current point of view, there are still 10 months before the Bitcoin halving. During the period of lowest market sentiment, altcoins usually hover near the cycle low. At this time, Bitcoin's dominance is also reaching its peak, and it will not reach that level again in this cycle. Moreover, we can also copy and look at the past few cycles. For example, this was the case ten months before the halving in 2015, and the same was true ten months before the halving in 2019. If we look back at the present from next year, maybe it will be the same in 2023!

In addition, through the 200-week MA and EMA lines, we can also find that the current price of Bitcoin is suppressed and has a trend of continuing to fall. As a new round of possible decline in Bitcoin begins, the altcoins in the trading pairs with BTC should slowly rise again.

But if we extend the time to 10 months or even longer, I am still bullish on the market next year, because even if it is not the bottom of the new bull market now, it is not far from the bottom, and once the new bull market starts, it will continue to rise and will not stop.

But the new bull market may be quite different from the previous bull market. Let’s take Bitcoin and Ethereum as an example. In the previous cycle, the market bottomed out 252 days before Bitcoin’s halving, and then began to consolidate/rise. But because Ethereum has undergone some important upgrades and changes in the past two years of the bear market, simply copying the past may not work. I think in the new cycle, the correction may only be 20-30%.

In particular, Ethereum has moved from PoW to PoS, through which ETH has gradually become a deflationary token. So, from a future investment perspective, deflationary ETH is a better investment than inflation (USD) of 4–5% per year. This is why, in a previous article, I even made a bold assumption and judgment: In the future, the price of Ethereum may reach $28,000!

Well, that's all I shared today through "Talking about Li and Beyond". Let's summarize and review it together. This article mainly briefly sorts out some basic judgments on the overall trend of the crypto market in the future. In general, if you haven't entered the market yet, then I think now is the best time for you to start accumulating positions. Although there may be a new round of declines in the second half of the year, you must also remember not to expect to buy at the lowest point and then sell at the highest point. The next period of time is definitely the best time for our DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging, which is the average cost method, which is what we often refer to as fixed investment). Don't worry about anything, just start fixed investment, and then stick to it for 2 years and come back to see.

I hope today’s sharing will be helpful to you. If you have any questions related to the blockchain field, you can ask questions in the community and we can discuss together.

Special thanks to: CryptoMichNL, 0xTHades

Disclaimer: The above content is only a personal point of view and analysis, and is only for the purpose of popular science learning and communication among the majority of enthusiasts. It does not constitute any investment advice. Investment is risky, please treat it rationally, improve risk awareness, and abide by the relevant laws and regulations of the country and region where you are located!