A. Market View
1. Macro liquidity
Monetary liquidity is tightening. The U.S. has revised down its employment numbers and lowered expectations for interest rate hikes, but the mainstream market expectation is that higher interest rates will be maintained for a longer period of time. U.S. stocks rebounded on the day, while U.S. bond yields fell after rising. The crypto market follows U.S. stocks, with a convergence rate of 70%.
2. Whole market conditions
Top 100 gainers by market capitalization:
The market experienced a sharp sell-off this week, ending a period of historically low volatility. Market hot spots revolve around the Base chain ecology.
OP: The Base chain based on OP technology has grown rapidly, with a transaction volume of 1.4 million, exceeding OP’s 400,000 and ARB’s 550,000 combined, mainly benefiting from the explosive growth of users of the social application Friend Tech.
PRIME: Parallel Life is an NFT card game similar to Hearthstone. Paradigm invested $50 million in it. The game is about the five races that evolved during human space exploration. It is one of the few game projects that has in-depth research in the game field and has a certain product quality. However, the token economics design is average and the token has limited uses.
AKT: Akash is an AI decentralized computing power similar to RNDR in the Cosmos ecosystem, and is currently holding a hackathon.
3. BTC Market
1) On-chain data
The market structure has deteriorated. Bulls now face a difficult task, with more than 88% of short-term BTC holders (within 6 months) in an unrealized loss state, most of which are around $29,000.
Stablecoins are rising steadily. The current market narrative has not changed, and a large amount of funds are still looking forward to BlackRock funds, the Fed’s interest rate cuts, and the arrival of the BTC halving cycle.
The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is greater than 6, it is the top range; when the indicator is less than 2, it is the bottom range. MVRV falls below the key level of 1, and the holders are generally in a loss state. The current indicator is 0.44, entering the recovery stage.
2) Futures market
Futures funding rate: This week's rate is neutral and bearish. The rate is 0.05-0.1%, with more long leverage, which is the short-term top of the market; the rate is -0.1-0%, with more short leverage, which is the short-term bottom of the market.
Futures open interest: This week, total open interest dropped sharply to the level of six months ago, with major players withdrawing from the market.
Futures long-short ratio: 1.3. Market sentiment is neutral. Retail investor sentiment is often a reverse indicator. Below 0.7, it is more panic, and above 2.0, it is more greedy. The long-short ratio data fluctuates greatly, and its reference value is weakened.
3) Spot market
This week, BTC fell and then fluctuated sideways. It is expected to follow the US stock market for 2-3 months, and will not stabilize until the last Fed rate hike meeting on September 20. Considering the many positive factors in the first half of next year, such as BTC production halving, BTC spot ETF is expected to pass, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates, it is recommended to slowly increase positions during the decline, or it may be the last chance to get on board before the bull market.
B. Market Data
1. Total locked-up amount of public chains
2. TVL Proportion of Each Public Chain
This week, TVL fell by 1.65b, a decrease of 4.1%. In recent weeks, TVL has shown an accelerated downward trend, and the decline has increased to a certain extent. This week, the proportion of the ETH chain has dropped slightly, down 1.1%. All chains are basically facing a comprehensive and sharp decline, and the decline of the BSC chain is relatively small. It is worth noting that the Base chain has maintained a 14% increase this week after a 222% increase last week. The overall number of protocols has reached 76, which may exceed the number of Solana protocols in the short term.
3. Locked Amount of Each Chain Protocol
1) ETH locked amount
2) BSC locked amount
3) Polygon locked-up amount
4) Arbitrum locked amount
5) Optimism lock-up amount
6) Base lock-up amount
IV. ETH Gas fee history
The current on-chain transfer fee is about $1.89, the Uniswap transaction fee is about $6.45, and the Opensea transaction fee is about $2.5. Gas has dropped this week. In recent weeks, Gas has changed very little and lacks explosiveness, indicating that the market is extremely lacking in activity. In terms of gas consumption, Uniswap occupies the top position.
5. Changes in NFT Market Data
1) NFT-500 Index:
2) NFT market situation:
3) NFT trading market share:
4) NFT Buyer Analysis:
This week, the top blue chip projects still saw a sharp drop in price, with a drop of 15%-25%. Degod saw a sharp increase in trading volume in the short term, but judging from the trading situation, it should also be caused by large-scale shipments, with prices falling by more than 50% in two weeks. The total market value of the entire NFT market fell further, and the market atmosphere was pessimistic.
VI. Latest project financing situation
