Daily Share
I would like to say to my new followers that I will update a detailed market analysis every Friday. The rest of the week, the article is just a simple update of short-term trend analysis. If you want a detailed version of the article and daily trading strategy, you can contact me to join the member group.
Since the big negative line of Bitcoin fell to more than 25,000 on August 17, a week has passed. Has there been any new changes? No, the trend is still as we predicted in the article last Friday. In the article last Friday, we said that the short-term unilateral decline is almost over, and there is a high probability that Bitcoin will fluctuate and consolidate around the range of 25,000 to 28,000 in the next week or so. Now, it is Friday of a new week, and Bitcoin is still consolidating in this range. So the market is still within expectations.
As for the overall trend, Bitcoin’s first daily decline has not yet ended, and it will break below 25166 in the future.
As for the market in the remaining months of this year, don't think about it. The probability of a sharp rise is very small, and the probability is a downward shock. If you want to buy the bottom of the long-term bull market, now is not the time.
In July, I was quite resolute to say that I never worried about not being able to buy Bitcoin below 25,000. Now, I can change my statement and I am not worried at all that I will not be able to buy Bitcoin around 20,000 in the next few months.
BTC mid- to long-term
Weekly:
At the weekly level, the decline from 69,000 is currently running the third weekly decline. At present, the target of the third weekly decline is around 18,000, which is a relatively reasonable and normal position, as shown by the yellow arrow in the figure above. If the peripheral markets such as the US stock market fall sharply in the spring of next year, and the interest rate cut does not start, it is not impossible for the big cake to fall below 15,500 again, as shown by the white arrow in the figure above.
Of course, there will be many people who hold opposing views. Most of them will say that the bull market will begin when the halving occurs next year. If it falls so deeply, how can it get out of the bull market?
There are many considerations here:
First, if Bitcoin is to start a new bull market, it must be thoroughly cleaned. If retail investors know that they need to stock up on Bitcoin when the bull market comes, and everyone has Bitcoin, it is bound to be difficult to pull up. Just look at Ethereum next door. Ethereum fell to 881 last year, which did cause a lot of panic trading. So it rose very well from July to August last year. In less than two months, it rose from 881 to 2030. But in November last year, Ethereum was obviously not cleaned thoroughly, so this year it rose from 1200 to around 2141, and the increase was not as expected.
What is a thorough wash? It does not mean that it is thorough when the price drops to the point where everyone dares not buy, but when those who bought the bottom on the mountainside suffer huge losses, or when the price does not rise for a long time at the bottom, everyone can't help but run away. Washing the market, of course, is the exchange of chips.
Second, whether next year will definitely be a bull market is still unknown. Structurally, the worst case scenario is that there will be a weekly rebound next year, similar to this year's weekly rebound. In that case, next year will not be a bull market. If the situation is better, next year will start a monthly rebound or monthly rise. The monthly rise generally takes about 1.5 to 2.5 years, and then next year will enter a bull market.
We will not say too much, and just touch upon the overall market view. The actual trend is still to be seen. If one day, on a large scale such as the weekly line, there are some new changes in the market, we will follow up the changes in time and make timely adjustments based on expectations. In fact, in the market, the dealer is not afraid of the longs or the shorts, but the most afraid is the flexible people who can adjust the trading strategy according to the changes in the market.
Daily Line:
At the daily level, the first daily decline has not yet ended, and there is still a fifth 4h decline to follow. What is not certain at present is whether the first daily decline will be around 24,000 or around 22,000. This can be observed later. According to the current structural time cycle, the first daily decline may end in early September, and there will be a second daily rebound in about 1 to 2 months.
The second daily rebound is unlikely to break through 28,500 because there are locked-in shares above it. Then the third daily decline will continue at the end of the year.
As for whether the overall weekly decline will end after three daily trajectories or five, it is hard to say at this moment.
4H：
The 4h level is the same as expected last Friday, the difference is that last Friday was still in the third 4h level decline, while this Friday should be in the fourth 4h level rebound. It is expected that next week should be the fifth 4h level decline. At that time, we can first pay attention to whether 24000 can hold up. If it can hold up, we need to see a daily rebound.
The fourth 4h-level rebound has not yet ended, and the target continues to be around 27,200.
BTC short term
Due to the rapid changes in the short-term market, the article can only predict the market changes at the moment of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest changes in the market and use it as a reference only.
1H：
The 1h level can be observed in two situations:
The first:
If Bitcoin rebounds for the third 1h level and moves above 27,000, the 4h level rebound will end directly.
Second type:
Bitcoin has now made its first 1h level rebound to around 26819. It will continue to fluctuate around the 25800~26500 range in the next few days. After oscillating out a 1h level center, it will make another rebound from the center to above 27000 to end the 4h level rebound.
15M：
At the 15-minute level, we can observe again to see whether it will form three up, down, and up lines at the 15-minute level like the white arrow to end the third 1h level rebound, or whether it will oscillate repeatedly to build a center like the blue arrow and then rush upward.
Overall, we can use 25600 as a reference line for a short-term structure. If it stays above 25600, we will continue to see a rebound at the 4h level until the structure is complete. If it falls below 25600, we need to pay attention to new changes in the structure.
ETH
From the daily structure of Ethereum, the daily decline has already fallen below the lower edge of the previous daily center, that is, it has fallen below 1626, and the current third daily decline is basically not divergent, so we judge that Ethereum is currently running a weekly decline. The trend of Ethereum is synchronized with Bitcoin. Ethereum is a weekly decline, and Bitcoin is basically a weekly decline. Therefore, the overall trend continues to see a volatile decline until the weekly decline structure of Bitcoin is completed as an end signal, which is fine.
At the 1h level, the structure is the same as that of the big cake. It depends on whether it will make the third 1h level rebound to above 1700, or whether it will continue to oscillate in the range of 1630~1675 to build a center and then rush upward to above 1700.
After the 4h level rebound is over, we will continue to look at the next 4h level decline, and then pay attention to the support near 1500.
Trend Direction
Weekly level: Downward direction, weekly level is in the process of oscillating decline
Daily level: The direction is downward. Currently, there is a downward movement at the daily level. Focus on the area around 24000 first.
4-hour level: The direction is upward, the fourth step of the 4h level rebound is in progress, waiting for the structure to be completed
1 hour level: the direction is upward or consolidation. Observe whether it continues to fluctuate in the range of 25800~26500 or moves upward. The third 1h level upward
15-minute level: Consolidation, short-term pressure is around 26500, support is around 25750~25800
