This year, there has been a significant decline in Bitcoin transaction volume on weekends, with activity dropping by as much as 16%. This can be attributed to the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, as these ETFs act similarly to traditional stock trading programs, reducing weekend price fluctuations.
Impact of Bitcoin ETFs on Market Behavior
Bitcoin has always been known as a 24/7 tradable asset, which often leads to periods of high volatility and so-called “Crazy Weekends.” However, weekend trading volume has decreased from 28% in 2019 to 16% today, indicating that the influence of Bitcoin ETFs is increasing. These ETFs, approved by the US Securities and Exchange Commission at the beginning of 2024, caused Bitcoin prices to reach peaks in March and increased investor interest. Although some gains have been pulled back, Bitcoin finished the year up nearly 45% and is currently trading at around $61,000.
Changes in Trading Volume and Patterns
Bitcoin ETFs comply with traditional market hours and do not trade on weekends, unlike exchanges that can generally be traded at any time. According to data from Kaiko, between 15:00 and 16:00 in the last quarter of 2023, Bitcoin transaction volume increased from 4.5% to 6.7%. This time zone is the reference window used to calculate the net asset value of the ETF.
The Role of Financial Institutions and Market Structure
In particular, the collapse of crypto-friendly banks such as Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March 2023 was effective in reducing transaction volumes over the weekend. Market makers can no longer access payment networks to trade in real time 24/7; This reduced the incentives to trade in low-volume time frames, resulting in a significant decline. As Kaiko notes, “The weekend/weekday gap is likely to persist because market makers who generate revenue from large transactions have limited incentives to provide liquidity in a low volume environment.”
Lower Volatility and the Maturation of Bitcoin
Kaiko's analysis shows how institutional investors' interest in Bitcoin through ETFs is balancing volatility. Bitcoin dropped from its volatility of 106% in November 2021 to 40% in March 2024 and reached a new peak of $73,798. The consistent low volatility trend below 50% indicates that Bitcoin is becoming an increasingly mature asset class.
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