BTC prices remain volatile, trading volume is sluggish, and pessimism remains. The current price remains around $26,000.

$BTC The opening of the U.S. stock market tonight may have an impact on the future trend of BTC. If the U.S. stock market itself can stabilize, it will also be helpful to the currency market.

In addition, there will be a very important Jackson Hole Annual Meeting this week, and Powell's speech will be very important as usual. Although the minutes show inconsistencies within the Fed, if Powell continues to maintain hawkish remarks, it is very likely that the Fed will still raise interest rates once in November or December.

Some say that the decline was caused by Musk’s selling of BTC, while others say that it was caused by the negative impact of Evergrande’s bankruptcy filing. However, this is only a temporary pain and has little impact on the long term. The long-term trend is still limited by the possibility of a sharp increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, which will lead to capital outflow from the cryptocurrency circle.

However, generally such a big drop will not last long (this time it is actually only about 15%, not as good as 25% in 2019) and may be followed by long-term fluctuations.

At the same time, we still have to wait for the approval results of a wave of ETFs in early September. Perhaps there will be major positive news that will change the short-term trend. Otherwise, we will have to focus on cyclical rules.

At the same time, a huge gap was formed on CME between 26500 and 27700. This gap has now become a strong resistance area. If there is a rebound to this range later, it will most likely be knocked down 1-2 times.

After such a decline, there is actually not much room for further decline. We regard the upper M top structure as a distribution box, and the lower head and shoulders bottom structure as an accumulation box.

From the fixed volume distribution of these two boxes, we can observe that neither the volume nor the time period above is sufficient to break the accumulation box below. If BTC falls further, there will be a strong volume range around 23,000.

Therefore, around 23,000 is the next support, and it is very difficult to break through the denser level of 20,000 overall.

Therefore, there is no need to be pessimistic about the market at the end of the year. The fourth quarter of 2023 is likely to be a good opportunity to build long-term positions. Be patient and wait for the next opportunity to buy at the bottom. Short-term gains and losses are irrelevant. Long-term profits are the kingly way. $BTC