• The Terra Luna Classic ecosystem tokens have experienced significant price drops as whales and other investors offloaded Terra Luna Classic ($LUNC). Our desk experienced an increase in trading demand for $LUNC as a result of volatility in the LUNC price.

  • As the merger deadline of July 1 approaches, holders of Fetch.ai ($FET), SingularityNET ($AGIX), and Ocean Protocol ($OCEAN) are excited and anticipating the outcome. As the event approaches, the prices of all involved tokens are surging upward. While Bitcoin is trading sideways, the market is refocusing on AI-related projects. With the merger announcement, our desk observed strong demand for all three AI-related tokens, with Fetch.ai experiencing the greatest volume change on Convert.

  • As the market returns its focus to AI projects, WorldCoin ($WLD) has once again become a popular token. Furthermore, Worldcoin announced a partnership with Alchemy to build out infrastructure for its blockchain World Chain, which boosted market sentiment towards this token.

Overall Market

  • The above chart shows the BTC price movement with the 1D chart.

  • After failing to break above the upper bound of the falling wedge last Wednesday, BTC price fell for further support. We saw a strong selloff come up after it broke below the falling wedge and found support in the $60/61k range.

  • The selloff was fueled by several bearish news:

  • The German government has commenced the sale of a significant Bitcoin stash seized from the operators of a movie piracy website since last Thursday. The nearly 50,000 Bitcoin, originally seized from the operators of Movie2k.to, a film piracy site last active in 2013, were handed over to the German Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) in January following a voluntary surrender by the suspects.

  • Mt. Gox will start returning assets to customers in July 2024. The exact number of bitcoins being sent to former customers is unknown, but it could range from 65,000 to 140,000. Traders anticipate that most creditors will sell their BTC soon after they receive it, causing the BTC price to fall further. 

  • Bitcoin (BTC) fell back to $60,000 in the US session on Wednesday, after a wallet linked to the US government transferred approximately 3,940 seized BTC to a CEX, raising concerns among traders that the digital assets would be sold.

  • BTC found support in the $60/61k range, but it did not rebound quickly or firmly. Instead, it is bouncing around that range, increasing the possibility that it will retest the support level and fall even further.

  • If the $60/61k support fails, the market could fall further until it reaches $52k, where strong support comes in. If this occurs, the retracement from the high at $73,650 will be more than 25%. 

  • A 25% retracement is not uncommon during a bull market. During the 2021 bull market, the Bitcoin price experienced six 25% or greater retracements. 

  • Our desk sees an increasing likelihood of this 25% retracement case after market sentiment shifted bearish, and risk management is critical to overcoming a large retracement in a bull market. 


Options Market

  • The above table is the 25-delta skew for BTC and ETH options.

  • According to the table, BTC options have a negative skew in the near-tenor options but a positive skew in the long-duration options. 

  • It means that options traders are bearish on the Bitcoin price in the short term, but bullish on it in the long term, with a stronger bullish view in 180 days.

  • Ethereum, on the other hand, has a positive skew across options with different tenors. Options traders have similar views on the long-term price of BTC and ETH. However, in the near term, with the possibility of an ETH ETF listing in early July, both 7-day and 30-day ETH options have a positive skew. 

Macro at a glance 

  • Last Thursday (24-06-13)

    • In May, the US PPI fell 0.2% month on month, compared to an expected 0.1% increase and a 0.5% increase in April. The lower-than-expected PPI could lead to lower inflation, increasing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September.

    • US initial jobless claims reached a nine-month high of 242k, exceeding the estimated 225k and last week's 229k. The recent increase in initial jobless claims suggests that the tight labour market in the United States is easing.

    • The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rate at 0.1%, unchanged. According to the statement, the Bank of Japan may reduce its purchases of Japanese government bonds after the next monetary policy meeting, which is scheduled for the end of July. USD/JPY rose to 158.2 from 157.3 prior to the announcement. 

  • On Monday (24-06-17)

    • The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the interest rate at 4.35%, unchanged. Governor Michele Bullock emphasized that high inflation was harming the economy and that lowering inflation was the top priority for the RBA. She stated that the RBA did not consider a rate cut case in this meeting, and the case for an interest hike was not increasing.

  • On Tuesday (24-06-18)

    • In May, the eurozone's CPI increased by 0.2% month over month, down from 0.6% in April. The annualized CPI growth rate in May was 2.6%, up from 2.4% in April. The core CPI growth rate increased by 2.9% on an annual basis, up from 2.7% in April.

    • In May, US retail sales increased by 0.1% month on month, falling short of the expected 0.3% growth but improving on April's 0.1% decrease. Core retail sales fell 0.1% month over month in May, falling short of the expected 0.2% increase.

    • In May, the UK CPI rose by only 0.3% month on month, falling short of the expected 0.4% increase. In May, the annualized CPI growth rate was 2.0%, which was lower than Apirl's figure of 2.3%. 

  • Later this week, we have

    • Bank of England interest rate decision on Thursday

Convert Portal Volume Change

  • The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. 

  • This week, Lista ($LISTA), the Megadrop program's second project, began trading, and our desk saw a surge in demand for this token across the desk, contributing to the +357.2% volume increase in this zone.

  • This week, with expectations that the ETH ETFs will be approved by the SEC and begin trading on July 4, ETH restaking sections continued to outperform the market, with trading volume in the Liquid Staking zone increasing by 136.8%.

  • Last week, our desk noticed a high demand for Bitcoin ($BTC) on Convert, which is the primary reason for the 0.3% volume increase in the POW zone.


Why trade OTC?  

Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.


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