Aerodrome + Velodrome combined into Aero; launched in one go on October 21 with 7 EVM chains (Base, Ethereum mainnet, OP mainnet, Arbitrum, Ink, Circleโs Arc, Robinhood Chain)
First, the numbers: โข AERO $0.79, market cap $787 million, 24h โ7.9% (on the day of the news it briefly surged +26%) โข VELO $0.034, market cap $45.4 million, 24h โ6.7% โข VELO market cap รท AERO market cap = 5.76%, while the split for the merger is 5.5% / 94.5% = 5.82%
My take:
1) The merger arbitrage is basically gone. VELO is only about 1% undervalued relative to its fair value; after accounting for slippage and migration costs, thereโs basically no profit to be made. If youโre betting on โVELO will catch up after the exchange ratio is announced,โ the odds just arenโt attractive anymore.
2) The real point isnโt the merger itself, but whether โ100% of revenue goes to stakers + unified cross-chain liquidityโ can be delivered. Aero currently accounts for about 17% of EVM spot trading volume; the official goal is to triple itโthis is a narrative, not an already-proven fact.
3) Risk checklist: launching on 7 chains at the same time is a major execution test; VELO was delisted from Binance on September 13, and liquidity during the migration period may thin out; the rally in AERO is driven by expectations, not revenue.
In one sentence: the merger is certain, the arbitrage is not, and revenue delivery is still unknown. Donโt treat the narrative as fundamentals.
$AERO $VELODROME #Aero #Velo