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This is the Bitcoin Situation for the Next 3 Years

Since last August I warned that the $108,000 level could not be lost in Bitcoin or else we entered a bearish cycle and it was going to be hard.

I am not a guru nor do I have a crystal ball.

But I try to get informed and I dedicate a lot of time to understanding what a Halving is. I understand mining costs. I understand staking. I understand leverage.

But above all we need to understand how all this leads us to CYCLES.

This chart is very powerful for understanding Bitcoin.

Each line is a cycle since its Halving. This event happens every 4 years.

The first cycle (the blue one) made the high somewhat earlier but the following cycles have made their highs at the same moment. All the lows have happened one year after reaching this high.

This last cycle (the strong yellow one) looks smaller and this is not a coincidence. Notice that each cycle is smaller than the previous one.

And this makes sense.

Bitcoin cycles are INFLATIONARY AND LOGARITHMIC.

Inflationary and logarithmic?

This is vital. Let me translate it for you.

Bitcoin should follow inflation because it is a finite asset like gold or real estate in certain areas.

Easy but logarithmic?

This is something you can't IGNORE anymore.

🤔 Bitcoin cycles go up less every time.

One reason is that the more an asset capitalizes the more it costs to keep it going up. Money in the world is finite and therefore when something capitalizes billions it starts to be complicated to make it grow in a faster rate than inflation.

But you must also know that in the Halvings the rewards to miners are reduced.

At the beginning this meant a beastly reduction of many BTCs which drove the price very high. But now the reward is barely reduced by 3 or 1 BTC so the price cannot rise at the same pace.

If we pay attention to previous cycles Bitcoin will keep falling in 2026 until the end of the year before starting a recovery. This is the most likely scenario right now.

So much for Bitcoin theory so let us go to the practical part.

🚀 Where will this low happen?

I do not know and nobody knows but we have clues.

In each of the cycles we have seen the price retreat from highs.

And a lot.

The first cycle down 85%
The second down 80%
The third down 75%

And now?

Maybe 70%? It could be. It is just an approximation.

This last drop to $60,000 is already a great milestone as the price has corrected 50% but in previous cycles we see that the best is still to come. It can fall another 50% down to $30k or $40k to meet the levels close to 70% correction which would seem plausible based on previous behavior.

In terms of price it seems there is a gap to fill and in terms of time it is even better.

Correction time of first cycle is 12 months
Correction time of second cycle is 12 months
Correction time of third cycle is 12 months

If this fourth cycle lasts the same as the previous ones we will be talking about seeing the moment of maximum pain in October 2026.

That is the moment where we will all say that $BTC is going to 0.

Who knows.

But, if we start accumulating in the $60k zone and save some money for the $30-40k area, we could easily average a $50k position during 2026.

After three years we should be at the next cycle peak which following a logarithmic progression could be somewhat higher than these last $120k (current cycle peak).

Let us assume $150k. (Which is a number I get from the serie of previous rallies, but there is too much math for today)

We are talking about selling the investment for triple the price in 3 years. That is a return that is not bad at all.

The risk is total. I go without a Stop Loss. It is aspirational investment and in no case is it capital protection.

And while we wait for the price to reach the right zone to keep buying, you could also make a quick trade to catch the next 10% rally.

👇 WANT MORE?

🚀 Hit the rocket, read my profile and follow so we can find each other again.
#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic

Be Machi Big Brother:
- teenage years spent obsessed with hip-hop and American culture
- forms L.A. Boyz in 1991 with his brother and cousin
- becomes one of the first Mandarin rap groups ever
- sells hundreds of thousands of albums, tours Asia, appears in LA Times
late 90s:
- launches MACHI Entertainment under Warner Music
- produces for Jay Chou and Jolin Tsai
2000s: turns to tech
- founds TheOne Technology Group and merges it in a $60M deal
- by 2015 launches 17Live, Asia’s top live-stream app
- IPO plans in New York fail after investor disputes
- sells his shares and looks for the next
2017: discovers crypto
- launches Mithril (MITH), a “social mining” project that pays users in tokens
- raises $13M but price collapses 80% within months
- joins Formosa Financial as advisor, raises 44,000 ETH (~$37M)
- 22,000 ETH later disappear from the treasury, never recovered
2020: enters DeFi
- forks Compound and creates Cream Finance
- protocol suffers multiple exploits, $192M+ drained
- launches a wave of forks: Mith Cash, Wifey Finance, Typhoon Cash
- most die within weeks
2021-2023: goes all-in on NFTs
- becomes one of the biggest BAYC whales
- holds more than 200 apes, worth over $9M
- later dumps 1,000+ NFTs in two days, crashing floor prices
- community calls it “the Machi dump”
2022: ZachXBT publishes investigation
- accuses him of scamming 22,000 ETH and running over ten failed projects
- Machi sues for defamation in Texas
- the case ends quietly after edits to the article
2024: launches memecoin Boba Oppa on Solana
- raises over $40M from presale hype
- price falls 74% in a month
- blamed for another “soft rug”
2025: trades aggressively on Hyperliquid
- opens 15–25x longs on ETH, PUMP, and HYPE
- loses over $53M in a few months
#WhaleDeRiskETH #TrendingTopic

Since the genesis block was mined in January 2009, the identity of Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, has remained one of the most enduring mysteries in finance. According to the Bitcoin whitepaper, Nakamoto planned for Bitcoin to exist as a decentralized entity without a leader. However, the vacuum created by the Bitcoin founder’s disappearance since 2011 has opened the door to numerous claims of authorship. 
Several figures have since been rumored to be Bitcoin’s creator, with attention focused on those widely speculated to be within the crypto community. While nearly everyone else denied being involved in Bitcoin’s creation, Craig Wright went as far as engaging in a high-profile litigation that culminated in a March 2024 UK High Court ruling that found “overwhelming evidence” he is not Bitcoin’s creator.
The next section details the various “Bitcoin Creator” allegations and claims since Nakamoto’s disappearance, highlighting each individual’s argument and what the crypto community thinks about them.
Adam Back

Famously known as a British cryptographer and CEO of Blockstream, Adam Back invented Hashcash, a proof-of-work system crucial to Bitcoin mining, in 1997, several years before Bitcoin was created, and even before launching Blockstream. Back did not claim to be the creator of Bitcoin. Instead, it is the public and Bitcoin ecosystem participants who suspect him to be Satoshi Nakamoto.
The suspicion stems from several pieces of circumstantial evidence, including his Hashcash creation years before Bitcoin was founded, being explicitly cited in the 2008 Bitcoin whitepaper by Nakamoto, and his association with the Bitcoin creator—he was the second person Nakamoto reached out to via email before Bitcoin’s official launch.
Back refuted the claims of being Bitcoin’s founder by providing evidence demonstrating he had yet to fully understand Bitcoin’s internal mechanics long after the cryptocurrency’s launch. He shared logs from the Bitcoin-wizards IRC channel from 2013, admitted to being “an idiot” for not buying or mining Bitcoin until 2013, long after its release, and released his email history with Nakamoto, which revealed a professional distance between them.
Dorian Nakamoto
Similar to Adam Back, Dorian Nakamoto has denied being the creator of Bitcoin following a publication by a major media outlet linking him to the cryptocurrency. He opposed the details contained in a controversial investigative report in 2014, categorically denying any involvement with Bitcoin’s creation.
In March 2014, Newsweek ran a cover story by journalist Leah McGrath Goodman titled “The Face Behind Bitcoin.” Goodman cited Nakamoto’s legal birth name, his professional background, his geographical proximity to the first recipient of a Bitcoin transaction, and the political views he held as evidence behind his report.
However, the suspected Bitcoin creator later rebutted the most crucial piece of evidence in the Newsweek report—a quote he allegedly gave while police were present at his home. He said,
“I am no longer involved in that, and I cannot discuss it. It’s been turned over to other people. They are in charge of it now. I no longer have any connection.”
According to him, it was a “major misunderstanding” with a misinterpreted context. He exposed his unfamiliarity with cryptocurrency by referring to it as “Bitcom,” and claimed that his financial and health situation does not agree with someone in control of such a significant amount of funds and resources.
Nick Szabo

Nick Szabo is another prominent American cryptographer who has repeatedly denied being Satoshi Nakamoto. Many third-party researchers and public figures have linked Szabo with  Bitcoin creation because he conceptualized Bit Gold, a decentralized digital currency that is widely considered the most direct precursor to Bitcoin, as early as 1998. 
Incidentally, Bit Gold featured technical elements of today’s Bitcoin cryptocurrency, including Proof-of-Work (PoW), decentralized ledger, and Byzantine Fault Tolerance. However, despite the researchers’ findings, Szabo has maintained a firm denial, insisting that those doxing him as Satoshi Nakamoto got it wrong.
Hal Finney

Hal Finney is another American developer who denied being Satoshi Nakamoto until he died in August 2014. According to Finney, the closest he came to the technology was being a supporter and an admirer of the work done by Satoshi Nakamoto.
Those who suspected Finney to be Bitcoin’s creator cited his status as the first person, other than Nakamoto, to download the Bitcoin software in January 2009. He also received the first-ever Bitcoin transaction of 10 BTC directly from the creator.
Other evidence cited by proponents includes Finney’s creation of Reusable Proof-of-Work (RPoW) in 2004, a critical stepping stone that directly influenced Bitcoin’s decentralized design. Finney also lived a few blocks away from Dorian Nakamoto, leading theorists to suggest he may have used his neighbor’s real name as a pseudonym. Meanwhile, Satoshi Nakamoto’s final communication in April 2011 coincided with the progression of Finney’s ALS (Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis), which eventually left him paralyzed.
Finney categorically denied being Bitcoin’s creator in 2013, describing himself as the “eager apprentice” of Nakamoto’s “master architect.” He further produced extensive email archives of his conversations with Nakamoto, revealing his role as a developer seeking clarification about the novel technology.
Peter Todd

Peter Todd is another of several individuals who have denied being the creator of Bitcoin. Todd described claims associating him with creating the cryptocurrency as “ludicrous” and “grasping at straws”. 
A documentary linking Todd with Bitcoin creation cited evidence from a December 2010 post on the BitcoinTalk forum. According to the documentary’s director, a reply from Todd’s account was a continuation of a thought started by Nakamoto, suggesting that Todd accidentally posted while logged into the wrong account.
The documentary made more allegations, including the use of a John Dillon persona, linguistic and geographical matches, and technical expertise to push the narrative of Todd being the founder of Bitcoin. However, the Canadian software developer rebutted those claims.
According to Todd, the BitcoinTalk forum post was simply a technical correction and not a continuation of Nakamoto’s post. In the meantime, critics believe that at 23, Todd was too young and could not have had the experience to author the Bitcoin whitepaper.
Jeffrey Esptein

Millions of pages of Department of Justice (DOJ) files released between late 2025 and February 2026 confirm that Jeffrey Epstein was an active early investor and networker within the Bitcoin ecosystem. The now-public documents triggered a viral narrative that Epstein could be the main individual behind Bitcoin.
Investigators and fact-checkers have since confirmed the emails were doctored and the document fabricated. They cited formatting errors and the use of an email address not found in authenticated Epstein records as reasons enough to discredit such claims. Meanwhile, authentic DOJ files reveal that Epstein claimed to have direct access to Bitcoin founders despite not claiming to be the founder.
Epstein died in a New York prison cell on 10 August 2019 as he awaited, without the chance of bail, his trial on sex trafficking charges. He was previously convicted of soliciting prostitution from a minor, for which he was registered as a sex offender.
In the meantime, discussions surrounding the Epstein case surged after U.S. President Donald Trump signed the Epstein Files Transparency Act, which Congress overwhelmingly passed, ordering the Justice Department to release all its files from the criminal investigations into Epstein. The event also reignited discussions around his role in Bitcoin’s creation.
Conclusion
Besides the above-listed individuals, there are several other crypto community players and technology experts who users allege to be the creator, or members of the team that created Bitcoin. These individuals include Jack Dorsey, Len Sassaman, and Paul Le Roux, among others.
Despite the allegations and claims, the identity of Bitcoin’s original creator remains a mystery, aligning with the fundamental philosophy contained in the whitepaper, which describes Bitcoin as the people’s money that should not be controlled by a centralized entity.

#BTC #TrendingTopic #SatoshiNakamoto