The crypto market remains deeply linked to macroeconomics and, in particular, to expectations about the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. Bitcoin continues to operate within a key range, with important technical levels concentrated in support zones where the RSI moves near neutral (40–50), reflecting market indecision. Liquidity remains the main catalyst: each data point on inflation, employment, or consumption adjusts the probabilities of rate cuts. Although consensus begins to lean towards eventual rate cuts, the Fed continues to be cautious, keeping risk assets — including cryptos — in a high volatility environment with rapid movements driven by news.
In parallel, the regulatory and fiscal front adds another layer of pressure. In the U.S., the advancement of mandatory reporting rules for crypto transactions and cost basis is changing the behavior of many investors, while in Europe the regulatory framework seeks greater traceability and control. In the short term, this generates friction and speculative exits; in the long term, it provides legitimacy and reduces structural risks. Technically, the market shows lower spot volume and greater weight of derivative trading, indicating that confidence has not yet solidified. Overall, the crypto ecosystem is going through a phase of transition: caught between the expectation of lower rates, a stricter regulatory framework, and institutional adoption that is progressing slowly but steadily.
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