Thesis,Theory, about ALTcoin,
First of all, you should remember about why is there an altcoin season?
Look at the graph, you can find that altcoins seasons always occurred when there is an asset rotation when BTC has reached ATH.
When?
In the past :
1. 2017 - 20118 cycle : February 2017 - June 2017
2. 2020 - 2021 cycle : December 2020 to May 2021
I'm talking about altcoins market. It's literally an odds of 50/50 whether it's the bottom or it's a bear market in the forming.
In term of technical analysis, it's all met of the structure has been broken for at least the top 20 of the altcoins even though, BTC remains strong.
We're actually is still observing the condition right now and still don't know what the outcome will be.
So, here is our action :
1. It's now BTC season obviously, so we will do rebalance more often on our portfolio with the proportion of heavy in BTC.
2. During the dip like this, we are going to heavily collect the quality token. The quality token that I mean is the token that we're willing to hold for the next at least 24 months.
3. We're selling some of the seasonal narrative-driven coin such as gaming coin, memecoin, SocialFi, Layer2, NFT, etc..
4. We're just putting our money in BTC with "all in" mode as our bet to the unstable economic ahead. We do this even with leverage. We'll be more aggressive adding position during the journey to the downside.
5. After rebalancing our portfolio, we're now on heavy 35% cash level. For the rest 65% of the position, we're heavy on BTC with 75% in the BTC position and the rest ONLY in quality coins.
You have to realize that we're in the bear market for altcoins. Even if there's an altseason, not all the coins will go to the roof.. This cycle will be a time to eliminate the trash out of the market.
You have to read our thesis about altcoins back at July 2024
By the way, BTC will bounce to $102k - $104k level no matter what for the swing.
The post above is for my long term portfolio.
Remember, it's BTC season. You will see BTC blows off top while the trash altcoins keep dropping.
#nomaeffect