initiahalt

#InitiaHalt The chain stopped at block 23,365,925, but why is the INIT price still moving?

📌 Actual figures (24.10.2026 03:15 UTC)
• INIT: $0.13689, 24h +3.5%; intraday range 0.11337–0.15738
• 24h volume: $8.96M (Binance spot)
• Chain: stopped on Oct 23 at 15:41:30 UTC, last block 23,365,925, no restart date
• Drained (alleged): ~$2.7M; according to D2 Finance, $2.65M reached ETH in 7 min 21 sec
• TVL: $5.73M (DefiLlama) — May 2025 peak: $42.15M

📉 Reading the data
At the time of the halt, price went from 0.1355 → 0.1134 (-16%), then to 0.1554 (+37%) an hour later. Now at 0.13689, the entire bounce has been given back. Price is below the SMA20 (0.1414), EMA12 (0.1426), and EMA26 (0.1400); RSI is 52, with a clear rejection from the upper BB at 0.1571. The structure hasn't fully broken down, but there's no momentum either.

🐋 On-chain evidence
The attacker minted 2M unbacked AUSD and bridged it to Ethereum via LayerZero: 1.4M AUSD (71% of the adapter), 105 ETH (96%), and 1.08M USDC; 1,135.5 ETH was consolidated at a single address. Upbit and Bithumb halted INIT deposits and withdrawals. Open interest is ~$24.7M, market cap ~$29M: OI/MCAP ~80%. In other words, leverage—not spot demand—is driving the price.

🎯 Plan
It's too early to say “buy the dip” here; whether this is a supply shock or exit liquidity on a halted chain will become clearer once the official post-mortem is released.
• Aggressive: No longs without a 1h close above 0.1414 (SMA20).
• Conservative: Wait for a restart and loss disclosure; a close below 0.1134 opens the risk of a new low.
• Short-term downside looks more likely; upside returns only with a high-volume close above 0.1574.

My view: price discovery isn't healthy until the chain is back online, and conditions aren't suitable for leveraged longs.

📌 What do you think will determine INIT's direction: the restart or the loss figure to be disclosed?

#InitiaHalt #INIT $INIT #OnChain #RiskManagement

Not financial advice.