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🚨 FED WATCH: Markets Bracing for a HIKE, Not a Cut 🚨
All eyes on the Eccles Building today — the FOMC decision lands this afternoon (Sept 16), and for the first time in years, traders aren't pricing in a cut. They're pricing in a hike.
📊 The numbers:
Current target range: 3.50%–3.75%
Market-implied odds of a 25bp hike: ~87–91% (CME FedWatch / Kalshi / Polymarket all aligned)
Odds of a cut: essentially zero
🔥 Why the flip?
August CPI ran hot at 3.4% YoY, core at 2.4%
Jobs report stayed resilient — 162K payrolls added, unemployment steady at 4.1%
Energy prices climbing amid the ongoing Iran conflict
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole remarks all but confirmed the shift
This is a big reversal from the easing path the Fed signaled earlier this year — and it's rattling everything from crypto to equities as risk assets recalibrate for a "higher for longer" (or even higher-still) regime.
Decision drops later today. Buckle up. 📉📈
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