Instant conclusion: ESA’s 《2026 Space Environment Report》 shows that, extrapolating from current launch behavior, the expectation for near-Earth orbital objects and collision risk is rising sharply. The health index jumps from about 4 to about 50 within a year, and long-term stress worsens by an order of magnitude.
According to ESA’s definitions (data through end of 2025; report page 2026-09-14):
In 2025, there were more than 300 launches, placing over 4,000 payloads into orbit. On average, about 10 new payloads are put into orbit per day, while more than 3 complete spacecraft or rocket bodies re-enter the atmosphere per day. The long-term extrapolation window for objects larger than 10 cm is reduced from 200 years to 100 years, and the curve remains clearly higher than in the previous year. The report states that simply preventing new debris is no longer sufficient; active debris removal is required.
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