Report on US employment for July: a huge miss!
The US economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, against a consensus expecting +80,000 new hires. A staggering gap of around 100,000 positions!
Key figures:
๐ป Non-farm payrolls: -23,000 (first decline in months)
๐ป Revisions for previous months: -103,000 jobs in total
๐ Unemployment rate: down to 4.1% (vs. 4.2% expected), but for the wrong reasons: 264,000 people left the labor market
๐ Labor force participation rate: down to 61.4% (lowest level in 5 years)
๐ Average hourly wage: +0.1% month over month (vs. +0.3% expected)
What impact on crypto?
Markets now price in only a 44% probability of another Fed rate hike in September (down from 57% before the release). Weaker data = less pressure on the central bank = potentially favorable tailwind for risk assets like BTC.
For now, Bitcoin is holding steady around $65,000, with a limited reaction. But the macro context has clearly changed.
โ ๏ธ Nuance: Some economists point to unusual seasonal adjustments (public education -50,000, and a drop in leisure). The real test will be next weekโs CPI.
Stay sharp, stay informed.
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