Canada’s latest statistics bureau data shows that in August, Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.0% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous value. Looking at the subcomponents, although the gasoline price year-on-year growth rate slowed from 25.7% in July to 22.8%, the resilience of crude oil prices continues to support energy costs. Food inflation, meanwhile, for the first time in 14 months fell below 3%; the year-on-year growth rate eased to 2.8%, providing a crucial buffer for the overall data.
This inflation report is highly resilient in the current macro environment. Even though Brent crude briefly moved above the $100 per barrel level this month, and the proposed 50% tariffs by former U.S. President Trump, along with potential retaliatory measures, have introduced risks of imported inflation, Canada’s core components are showing signs of easing. Loosening in the food component sends a positive signal, suggesting that the cumulative effects of the tightening cycle are still effectively suppressing underlying price stickiness.
From a technical and macro-asset tape perspective, with CPI holding at 3.0%, there has been no extreme disruption in the yield curve. While the Bank of Canada has previously warned that it would not rule out further rate hikes if inflation resurges, inflation has not accelerated upward, which significantly alleviates the risk of a spike in short-end government bond yields. The USD/CAD exchange rate remains in a range around key structural levels, safe-haven capital flows are steady, and the liquidity base for global risk assets has not been damaged.
For crypto assets, as long as macro inflation does not deliver an upside break beyond expectations, it is a potential tailwind for Risk-on capital. The selling pressure around key support levels represented by
$BTC is gradually being absorbed. When inflation data stays sideways and core items cool, expectations for the macro rate end-point become clearer, and on-chain liquidity may be poised for a phase of corrective recovery. Continue to watch for accumulation signals among major tokens within their support ranges and for upside breakouts on increased volume. 📈
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