btcvn4

First of all, BTCVN4 would like to sincerely apologize to the community for the assessment shared in the previous analysis.
In my previous post, I assessed that BTC was in an accumulation phase, with selling pressure showing signs of being absorbed and a relatively high possibility of a new upward move.
That assessment was based on the money flow data available at the time, when large orders on Binance were still showing net buying activity and BTC was maintaining a relatively stable trading range.
However, the serious hacking incident at Binance itself triggered a major shock to market sentiment and selling pressure that I had completely failed to anticipate.
BTCVN4 takes responsibility for an assessment that did not fully account for the risks of such an extraordinary event. I sincerely apologize if my previous analysis created expectations that did not align with actual market developments.
In investing, the most important thing is not to always make the right predictions, but to remain honest with the data and be willing to adjust our views when market conditions change.
Now, let’s take a closer look at what is happening with Bitcoin.
1. MONEY FLOWS HAVE REVERSED: SELLING PRESSURE IS DOMINATING
According to the Binance and OKX data on October 30, BTC was trading around 78,284 USDT.
Three points are particularly noteworthy:
Total selling volume exceeded buying volume by approximately 2,015 BTC.Large orders shifted to net selling, with 873 BTC in net outflows.Medium-sized orders recorded more than 1,139 BTC in net selling.
This shows that money flow conditions have changed significantly in a relatively short period.
It is a clear signal that selling pressure is increasing and market sentiment has deteriorated considerably.
2. BTC MONEY FLOWS ACROSS THE MARKET: AN INTERESTING DIFFERENCE
According to aggregated on-chain data as of October 29:
Daily Netflow: approximately -23,551 BTC.7-day average: approximately -2,878 BTC per day.30-day average: approximately -849 BTC per day.
A negative netflow means that more BTC is being withdrawn from exchanges than deposited, based on the dataset being tracked.
This is an important signal because it does not suggest that the entire market is rushing to deposit BTC onto exchanges for a massive sell-off.
It indicates that the current market situation is much more complicated than simply looking at the decline in BTC’s price.
3. HOW HAS THE BINANCE HACK AFFECTED MARKET SENTIMENT?
A serious security incident at a major exchange like Binance does not only affect assets directly associated with the exchange.
It can also trigger three major ripple effects:
First: Panic and fear.
Investors become concerned about the safety of assets held on centralized exchanges. As a result, they may reduce their risk exposure and sell assets to move into cash or alternative storage solutions.
Second: Liquidity pressure.
When Binance needs to conduct security investigations or temporarily suspend certain deposit and withdrawal services, asset transfers may be disrupted. This can make the market more sensitive to unusual price movements.
Third: Contagion effect.
In the crypto market, sentiment is highly interconnected. An incident involving Binance can undermine investor confidence in the entire crypto market, including assets that are not directly related to the incident.
In my view, this is precisely what makes the current BTC decline different from an ordinary technical correction.
4. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: BTC HAS LOST ITS SHORT-TERM BULLISH STRUCTURE
BTC Price: approximately 78,284 USDT.EMA20: 80,064 USDT.EMA50: 80,686 USDT.EMA100: 81,343 USDT.EMA200: 81,527 USDT.RSI(6): 32.35.RSI(12): 36.84.RSI(24): 40.04.MACD: -264.39.
Currently, BTC is trading below all major EMA indicators on the 4-hour timeframe.
The negative MACD and weakening RSI indicate that bearish momentum is dominating.
However, BTC has formed a lower candle wick around 76,500 USDT before recovering to approximately 78,300 USDT.
This suggests that buying demand has emerged at lower price levels, but there is not yet enough evidence to confirm that a bottom has formed.
5. KEY PRICE LEVELS TO WATCH
76,500–77,000 USDT: Important Support Zone
If BTC manages to hold this area, the market still has a chance to stabilize following the shock.
79,700–80,100 USDT: First Recovery Zone
BTC needs to reclaim this area to improve its short-term price structure.
80,600–81,500 USDT: Strong Resistance Zone
This area contains the EMA50, EMA100, and EMA200 levels. If BTC recovers toward this zone, trading volume and buying pressure will need to be closely monitored.
84,900 USDT: Further Recovery Target
This level should only be considered if BTC successfully reclaims the lower resistance zones and an upward trend is confirmed.
6. THREE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR BTC IN THE COMING PERIOD
Scenario 1 – Recovery After the Shock
BTC holds the 76,500–77,000 USDT zone, selling pressure gradually decreases, large orders return to net buying, and the price reclaims 80,000 USDT.
In this case, the decline could be viewed as a strong reaction to the incident, followed by a gradual market recovery.
Scenario 2 – Continued Accumulation Within a Wide Range
BTC fluctuates between 76,500 and 80,000 USDT.
Investors need more time to rebuild confidence, while the market needs to absorb the additional supply generated by the incident.
Scenario 3 – Further Downside Correction
BTC breaks below 76,500 USDT, selling pressure continues to dominate, and buying demand proves insufficient to drive a recovery.
In this situation, investors should remain cautious about the possibility of a deeper correction.
7. BTCVN4’S PERSONAL CONCLUSION: SEPARATE EVENT-DRIVEN RISKS FROM THE LONG-TERM MARKET TREND
BTCVN4 still believes that we should not equate a security incident at Binance with a fundamental breakdown of the entire crypto market.
However, this incident has significantly changed the short-term market environment. My previous assessment that BTC was accumulating ahead of another upward move needs to be reassessed.
At this point, BTCVN4 is prioritizing four factors:
Progress in resolving the incident and restoring Binance’s deposit and withdrawal services.BTC money flows across exchanges over the coming days.Whether large orders return to net buying.Whether BTC can hold the 76,500–77,000 USDT support zone and reclaim 80,000 USDT.
BTCVN4 is not rushing to conclude that the market has formed a bottom, but there is also insufficient evidence to confirm that a prolonged market collapse is underway.
Once again, BTCVN4 would like to sincerely apologize to the community for failing to anticipate the shock caused by the Binance hacking incident in the previous analysis.
In investing, nobody can accurately predict every unexpected event. What matters is being honest with the data, identifying risks, and adjusting our strategies when circumstances change.
Thank you all for continuing to follow, support, and share your perspectives.
Let’s remain calm, monitor market developments, manage our capital carefully, and avoid allowing crowd psychology to dictate our investment decisions.
There will always be new opportunities in the market, but protecting capital must always come first.
#BTCVN4
#BinanceSquareFamily #NewsAboutCrypto #bitcoin #Ethereum

Bitcoin is currently trading within a relatively narrow range around 80,000–82,000 USDT. What stands out is that despite BTC’s inability to break out, its downside correction has remained relatively limited.
According to BTCVN4’s observations, the market may be entering a phase of selling pressure absorption. If demand continues to hold up and BTC breaks through the nearest resistance zone, a new upward move could be worth watching closely.
However, we need to look at capital flows and technical market structure rather than simply assuming that sideways price action means a rally is coming.
1. LARGE-ORDER FLOWS ARE LEANING TOWARD BUYERS
The total visible buy volume is approximately 15,297 BTC, compared with around 10,906 BTC in sell volume.
This is a noteworthy signal. While BTC continues to trade within a narrow range, large orders show greater buying volume than selling volume.
This is consistent with the possibility that some buyers are absorbing the BTC being sold into the market.
2. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: BTC IS AT A DECISIVE ZONE
BTC is currently trading around 80,918 USDT.
Key technical indicators to watch:
EMA20: approximately 81,756 USDT.EMA50: approximately 80,809 USDT.EMA100: approximately 77,810 USDT.EMA200: approximately 76,437 USDT.RSI(6), RSI(12), and RSI(24): approximately 43.6, 44.6, and 49.8, respectively.MACD remains in negative territory.
These figures suggest that BTC has not yet confirmed a strong short-term uptrend. The price remains below EMA20, the RSI indicators do not show dominant bullish momentum, and MACD still needs time to improve.
This creates an important equilibrium zone. If buyers can defend the current price structure and push BTC above resistance, the market could transition from consolidation into a stronger recovery.
3. KEY PRICE LEVELS TO WATCH
Support zone: 80,000–80,800 USDT
This is a crucial area in the short term. If BTC continues to hold this zone, the bullish consolidation scenario remains viable.
Resistance zone: 82,300–82,500 USDT
BTC needs to break above this zone with improving trading volume to strengthen the recovery signal. If the price merely touches resistance and reverses, the market may continue moving sideways.
Target zone: 84,000–87,400 USDT
If BTC successfully breaks out, 84,000 USDT could be the next area to test. Beyond that, the previous local high around 87,400 USDT will be an important resistance level to watch.
4. THREE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR BITCOIN IN THE COMING DAYS
Scenario 1: Consolidation followed by a breakout
BTC continues to hold the 80,000–80,800 USDT zone, large-order flows remain net positive, and the price breaks above 82,500 USDT alongside rising trading volume.
This would be a noteworthy signal that BTC may be entering a new recovery phase.
Scenario 2: Continued sideways movement
BTC fluctuates between support and resistance while buying and selling pressure remain evenly matched.
In this case, the market needs more time to absorb supply. Investors should remain patient and wait for confirmation rather than rushing to predict the next move.
Scenario 3: Support breakdown
BTC falls below 80,000 USDT, selling pressure intensifies, and more BTC flows onto exchanges.
If this happens, the bullish accumulation thesis would weaken, and the 77,800–76,400 USDT zone would become important to monitor.
CONCLUSION: BTCVN4 LEANS TOWARD FURTHER CONSOLIDATION, BUT CONFIRMATION IS ESSENTIAL
In BTCVN4’s view, the most important factor right now is not how much BTC has gained in percentage terms, but whether the price can continue holding this critical zone.
If selling pressure continues to be absorbed, BTC maintains its support, and capital flows provide confirmation, a new rally could certainly emerge.
The most reasonable strategy at this stage is to monitor BTC’s reaction around 80,000–80,800 USDT and wait for confirmation of a breakout above 82,300–82,500 USDT, rather than chasing the price simply because a rally is expected.
What do you think? Is BTC quietly absorbing selling pressure ahead of a breakout, or is this merely a temporary bounce before a deeper market correction?
#BTCVN4
#bitcoin #BinanceSquareFamily #news #Ethereum

BTCVN4 | MARKET WARNING
Following a shocking security breach involving an estimated $6.3 billion in stolen assets, Binance has taken corrective measures, allocated financial resources to protect users, and begun restoring its operations.
However, in my opinion, we should not rush to conclude that the crisis is over.
Behind this incident, one major risk remains: More than $3 billion in assets are reportedly still under the hackers’ control and have not yet been frozen.
This could become one of the most significant potential sources of selling pressure facing the crypto market in the coming days.
1. Binance Has Addressed the Financial Damage, But Hackers Still Control Massive Amounts of Asset
According to figures reported during the investigation:
Estimated total value of stolen assets: approximately $6.3 billion.Assets reportedly frozen: approximately $3 billion.Assets still controlled by hackers: approximately $3.1–$3.3 billion.Binance has allocated financial resources to protect and compensate affected users.
This highlights two critical issues that must be distinguished:
First: Binance’s financial ability to protect its customers.
Second: The ability to recover the assets stolen by hackers.
Binance may use its own financial resources to compensate users, but that does not mean the remaining stolen assets have disappeared.
And this is precisely what we need to pay attention to.
2. The Real Time Bomb: Billions of Dollars in BTC and ETH Still Held by Hackers
According to publicly reported on-chain analysis, the remaining assets include:
Approximately 18,270 BTC, worth an estimated $1.43 billion.Approximately 511,861 ETH, worth an estimated $1.15 billion.The remaining value consists of other crypto assets.
This is what concerns me the most.
Why?
Because USDT and USDC have mechanisms that allow their issuers to freeze specific addresses under applicable circumstances.
BTC and ETH, on the other hand, are decentralized assets. There is no central issuer that can unilaterally freeze the hackers’ entire balances.
This makes preventing the movement and recovering these assets significantly more difficult.
Hackers could potentially:
Sell directly through cryptocurrency exchanges.Transfer assets through OTC brokers.Distribute funds across multiple wallets.Use cross-chain protocols in attempts to obscure transaction trails.
We must understand that transferring assets does not necessarily mean selling them. However, if these BTC and ETH holdings begin to be liquidated, the market could face significant selling pressure.
3. What Happens If Hackers Start Dumping Their Assets?
I see three scenarios worth monitoring.
SCENARIO 1: Hackers Continue Holding Their Assets
If the hackers’ wallets remain largely inactive, immediate selling pressure may not materialize.
The market could gradually stabilize as Binance restores its operations and investor confidence improves.
SCENARIO 2: Hackers Gradually Liquidate Their Assets
If hackers use OTC transactions or distribute their holdings into smaller transactions, the market could experience prolonged selling pressure.
This may be the hardest scenario to detect because it does not necessarily trigger an immediate crash. Instead, it could gradually weaken BTC and ETH recovery attempts.
SCENARIO 3: Hackers Dump Large Amounts of BTC and ETH
This is the most concerning scenario.
If significant amounts of BTC and ETH enter the market within a short period, especially during periods of weak liquidity, we could witness:
Direct selling pressure on BTC.Significant supply pressure on ETH.Broad weakness across altcoins.Liquidations of leveraged long positions.Panic-driven selling and capital outflows from the market.
The biggest danger is not just the amount of BTC and ETH being sold, but the cascading effect when leveraged positions are liquidated one after another.
4. Could Altseason 2026 Be Delayed Again?
This is something I particularly want to warn the community about.
We have been anticipating a capital rotation from BTC into ETH and altcoins during the 2026 cycle.
However, for a genuine Altseason to take place, the market needs stable liquidity, investor confidence, and a healthy risk appetite.
An event like the Binance hack could disrupt this process.
If hackers begin liquidating their remaining assets, the market could face another wave of corrections.
In particular, altcoins with lower liquidity and high leverage exposure could be hit harder than BTC.
Therefore, I believe we should not rush to declare that Altseason 2026 has officially begun based solely on a few short-term recovery rallies.
5. What Signals Will BTCVN4 Be Monitoring?
Over the coming days, I will be paying close attention to five key indicators:
Hackers’ Wallets: Are there unusual transfers of BTC and ETH to cryptocurrency exchanges?BTC and ETH Exchange Flows: Are exchange inflows increasing abnormally?Trading Volume: Are price declines accompanied by rising selling volume?Funding Rates and Open Interest: Are we seeing widespread deleveraging across the market?Binance: Are withdrawal services, system operations, and Proof of Reserves reporting being restored consistently?
Most importantly, I will not automatically interpret transfers to new wallets as selling activity. We need confirmation from actual on-chain data before drawing conclusions.
6. My Strategy During This Critical Period
I do not believe this is the time to panic-sell every asset.
However, it is also not the right moment to become overly confident and aggressively increase altcoin exposure.
A few important principles:
Limit the use of leverage.Maintain a reasonable cash allocation.Avoid rushing into dip-buying before capital flows stabilize.Monitor BTC and ETH closely before increasing altcoin exposure.Diversify asset storage and avoid relying entirely on a single exchange.
A good investment opportunity does not always need to be bought immediately. Sometimes, protecting capital and waiting for clearer confirmation is the most important decision.
FINAL THOUGHT: DON’T UNDERESTIMATE THE $3 BILLION TIME BOMB!
Binance may have addressed much of the immediate financial risk associated with compensating affected customers.
But the story is not over.
More than $3 billion in assets are reportedly still under the hackers’ control. If these holdings are liquidated, they could trigger a major supply shock and negatively affect the entire crypto market.
I am not claiming that BTC will definitely crash or that Altseason 2026 is over.
But I want the community to understand one thing:
The biggest risk right now is not just the hack that has already happened, but what hackers might do with the assets that have not yet been recovered.
Don’t let expectations of an upcoming Altseason blind you to the market’s warning signals.
Follow the money, manage your risks, and protect your investment gains.
#BTCVN4 – Stay Alert, Protect Your Capital!
#BTC☀ #Binance #Ethereum #CryptoMarket