📈 BTC Trapped in Liquidity Trap: Why the Sideways Movement? When Can We See $110,000?
BitMEX's Head of Business Development, Raphael Polansky, conducted an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin's current trend. In short: News within the crypto industry is no longer the dominant force; the macro economy is key. 🌍
Key Points:
• Reason for Sideways Movement: Limited dollar liquidity. There isn't enough "spare cash" in the financial system to push up risk assets, but there also lacks the triggering factors for a crash.
• Fluctuation Range: With the Federal Reserve maintaining a tight financial condition and bank credit being restricted, BTC will fluctuate in the range of $87,000 – $95,000, lacking the momentum for a sustained trend.
• Dulled Bullish Sentiment: In the current macro context, even an increase in institutional interest or favorable news within the industry is unlikely to shake the market.
🚀 Future Prediction:
Bullish Scenario ($110,000): If the Federal Reserve releases any signals of interest rate cuts (a shift in monetary policy) or takes emergency measures to address financial pressures, BTC may hit $110,000 within the next 6 months. Bearish Scenario ($70,000): If financial conditions tighten further, yields surge, or issues in the banking system lead to a rise in global risk aversion, prices may retreat.
Summary: Polansky expects the market to continue to maintain high volatility in a sideways trend. Only when the market is convinced that the “hard money era” has ended will a true trend upward arrive. 💸
What do you think? Wait for the Federal Reserve to pivot, or will it first dip to $70,000 for a retest? 👇
#BTC #比特币 #BitMEX #宏观经济 #加密货币