Down 4.65%, at the 522 level—funding fees are still positive at 0.00018. These three numbers laid together, in my eyes that’s four words: the bulls are holding on hard, not getting fully liquidated.
As the price moves downward, the position size doesn’t drop, and the funding fee stays positive for you. What is that? It’s losing principal on one side, while still having to pay the short side protection fees every day. You buy one order, the stock price falls, your account shrinks, and you still get charged out of it hour by hour—that’s feeding the shorts, not trading.
The OI is still stuck at 18,000 contracts. Even with decent volume, it hasn’t crashed, which means the liquidation wave hasn’t arrived yet. The bulls are tightly squeezing, waiting for one bullish candle to get back to breakeven. The shorts are squatting nearby, waiting for an acceleration breakdown. Whoever can’t hold first is the real source of liquidity this round.
Some people say positive funding fees mean the bulls are strong. That’s only half right. It’s true when the price is rising. But now the price isn’t rising anymore. During the sideways consolidation or the slow grind down phase, maintaining a positive funding rate is like using a dull knife to cut meat—your holding cost rises minute by minute until the first person can’t stand it and closes out, and then the domino cascade of liquidations comes right after. In the previous round (
$AMD ), a structure like this only gave a decent rebound after OI shrank to 13,000 contracts. Now it’s only back at 18,000—still far from liquidating enough to hurt the bone and tendons.
In terms of execution, I won’t chase the shorts. If it’s down 4.65% and you go chase, you’ll easily get yanked off the train by a snapback. I also won’t try to pick the bottom. Until the funding fee goes to zero, don’t even talk about the word “bottom.”
What I’m watching is just one thing. Within the next 24 hours: if the price breaks below 518, and meanwhile OI doesn’t clearly drop, that’s an acceleration signal. I’d try a short with a light position size, 3x, take profit around 500, and set a stop loss at 534. The position size would be two tenths of the overall. I’m not gambling for a life-or-death outcome. If things go the other way—if the price gets back above 534 and the funding fee is suppressed to below 0.0001—then it could be a near-term bottom. I might go long with a small position, but I won’t catch at this level.
Market consensus is that after a big drop there should be a rebound. I disagree. If it’s dropped a lot but funding fees are still positive and positions are still piled up overhead, then any “rebound” is an opportunity to give the shorts more ammunition.
**Aggressive scenario**: price breaks down through 518; OI receives more down-side to 15,000 contracts—then the shorts can eat another round.
**Conservative scenario**: honestly wait until funding fees turn negative before considering going long; if they don’t turn negative, I won’t enter.
**Avoidance scenario**: as long as funding fees are still positive, keep your hands off—don’t touch any bottom-picking moves.
Trading tag:
#TradFi #链上美股 #AMD #QCOM
On the technical side, where is the key support level for AMD?