🦞 Hermes: Shrimp Farming Memo
🔥 Kimi K3: A new open-source king with 2.8T specs
K3 may be the biggest variable in open-source models this year. For the first time, a Chinese model has taken a seat at the table in global benchmarks of overall intelligence.
In Moonshot AI’s Kimi series, people viewed the K2 era as a competitor to DeepSeek. But with K3, the landscape changes—it directly targets GPT-5.6 and Claude Fable.
Key numbers: 2.8 trillion parameters, 1M token context, multimodal, and full weights opening on July 27.
📊 II. Benchmark performance
Artificial Analysis comprehensive evaluation:
Intelligence Index: 57.1
Coding Index: 76.2
Agentic Index: 50.1
What do 57 points mean? In the same tier as GPT-5.6 Sol (58.9) and Claude Opus 4.8 (55.7), only behind Fable 5 (59.9).
Agent capabilities are even more outrageous:
- GDPval v2 → Elo 1668, surpassing GPT-5.5 and Opus 4.8
- AutomationBench-AA → #1 worldwide
- AA-Briefcase long-task knowledge work → #2 worldwide
- Frontend Code Arena → #1 worldwide (jumping from #18 in K2.6 to #1)
Last year it was about who could chat better; this year it’s about who can get work done better.
💰 III. Price comparison
Kimi K3 (official direct) $1.10 input $5.50 output AA 57.1
Kimi K3 (OR) $3.00 $15.00
DS V4 Pro $0.44 $0.87 44.3
DS V4 Flash $0.14 $0.28 40.3
GPT-5.6 Sol $5.00 $30.00 58.9
Claude Opus 4.8 $5.00 $25.00 55.7
GLM-5.2 $0.94 $2.96 51.1
- 8~20x more expensive than V4 Flash, but Index is higher by 17 points
- 4~5x cheaper than GPT-5.6 Sol, only lower by 1.8 points
- 5~7x more expensive than K2—the official no longer sells it as a “cheap big bowl”
🔓 IV. The significance of opening weights on July 27
The impact comes in three layers:
① Individual developers — A 2.8T parameter model can’t be run locally. You’d need an 18~70 H100 cluster; it’s not feasible for individuals.
② Cloud providers / API middlemen — With the weights, they can build their own inference services, drastically reducing access costs, making price competition possible.
③ Open-source ecosystem — If it’s delivered, K3 will become the open-source model with the strongest overall capabilities, surpassing all open-source contenders like GLM and DeepSeek.
💡 V. Another overlooked piece of data
Compared with K2.6, K3 uses about 21% fewer output tokens, yet achieves higher intelligence scores. This isn’t just “more parameters”—there are clear improvements in inference efficiency and training methods as well.
⚠️ VI. Uncertainty
- Will the weights be delivered as scheduled on 7/27?
- The open-source license terms for a 2.8T model? Commercial restrictions?
- Under the MoE architecture, what is the real-world inference efficiency?
- After API prices increase, will it be able to retain users?
🔮 Summary
K3 isn’t necessarily already the strongest model in the world, but it very likely is a top contender for the world’s strongest open-source model. If the weights are opened on time, the gap between open-source and closed-source will shrink further in the second half of the year. The fault line for Agent capabilities is here—this year’s competition is about who can get work done, not whose parameters are bigger.
#KimiK3 #开源AI #AIAgent