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$AAVE printed -3.06% over the last 24 hours, settling at 87.910. The first thing I look at when I see a move like this is not the price action itself, it is the context. What is the rest of the market doing? Today the rest of the market was a mixed bag, 24 up against 30 down. So
$AAVE is underperforming its peers. That distinction matters because it tells you whether this is a AAVE-specific story or just beta.
Looking at the chart of
$AAVE , the range I am focused on is 87.470 to 101.14. That is roughly a 15.6% band, which is wide enough to be a trading range but tight enough that the boundaries matter. What bothers me is volume is light at 0.74x average, which makes me cautious about the durability of any move here.
The internal structure of
$AAVE is firmly bearish with 19 down candles versus 5 up. Sellers are dominating. When I see internal structure agreeing with the daily move, I take the signal more seriously. When it disagrees, I assume the daily move is a counter-trend bounce or dead cat.
If I had to play
$AAVE , I would be a buyer on a confirmed break of 101.14 with a stop under the recent swing. I would not chase here. The risk-reward is not yet there. Sizing should reflect that we are in a choppy tape and a retest of 87.470 is a real possibility. If
$AAVE loses 87.470 on heavy volume, the next level down is the prior consolidation zone, which I do not have on this chart but the chart will tell us when we get there.
Bottom line:
$AAVE is at a decision point. I am watching 101.14 on the upside and 87.470 on the downside. The next 4H close will tell me which way I lean. Until then, this is a market for patience, not conviction.
$AAVE |
#AAVE #crypto
Marcus, writing from a screen that has seen three of these setups this month already. None of them were easy.