altcoins

For the last 2 years, we have ignore this 120 day cycle that comes when everyone is giga bullish.

Not “a bad week.”
Not “a red month.”
A full 4-month downtrend.

If you’re sitting in drawdowns right now, this is the first real reason to feel a bit hopeful again.

THE PATTERN NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT

Look at Total3 (altcoin market cap ex $BTC / $ETH ) since Jan 2024.

We get a push.
Then we get a long grind down.

Q1 2024: altcoins rip.
Then they enter a 120-day downtrend where everything feels dead and bounces get sold.

Later in the cycle, we get another big leg up (the chart marks a Q4 rally), and guess what happens again?

Another 120-day downtrend into early 2026.

Same length. Same vibe.

What does that tell you?

This cycle isn’t “only up.” It’s been moving in blocks:
rally → distribution → slow bleed → reset → rally.

Most people only notice the rally.
Traders who survive notice the reset.

And we’re in the reset zone again.

WHY THIS SETUP CAN TURN BULLISH FROM HERE

Now look at what’s happening at the bottom of the chart.

Price has dropped back into a major support band that acted like a floor before. You can see how the market keeps reacting around that zone.

At the same time, RSI has been trending down for months and is now sitting at the depressed end of its range. You don’t need to worship RSI, but when momentum is crushed after a long timed downtrend, it usually means selling is getting exhausted.

The clean takeaway is simple:

When you get a time-based downtrend (120 days) two times in the same cycle, it often marks the “capitulation window” where weak hands exit and value buyers start building positions slowly.

Does that mean we go straight up tomorrow?

No.

But it does mean the odds shift from “random downside” to “base building.”

And if Bitcoin stops being a problem for a few weeks, this is usually where altcoins start catching bids again.

This is the part of the cycle where patience pays.

Not because the chart is pretty.
Because the panic has already done its job.
This article is my own research it might not match your thinking or opinion, so do your own research also before taking your own decision.
#bullishleo #altcoins

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Cryptocurrency markets have undergone structural changes that may prevent most alternative digital assets from reaching their previous all-time highs.
Summary
Most altcoins are unlikely to reach previous all-time highs due to liquidity issues and capital being concentrated in large-cap assets.The current market may be undergoing a mid-cycle reset, with most of the price decline already completed, followed by about 200 days of sideways consolidation before price expansion resumes.Traditional four-year cycle models may no longer apply, with the market showing faster declines and a potential earlier recovery than anticipated by the consensus view of a prolonged bear market.
Institutional capital has fundamentally altered market dynamics that previously characterized retail-driven cycles tied to Bitcoin halving events.
In 2018, approximately 1,000 cryptocurrencies traded in markets that exhibited more predictable patterns, according to the analyst. Traders typically rotated between altcoin-to-Bitcoin pairs and exited positions following post-halving bull runs. Market behavior through 2021 remained largely retail-led, with halving events carrying significant psychological influence and price patterns repeating with consistency.
That framework has since changed, according to market analyst Inmortal. Institutional investors have directed billions of dollars primarily toward Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana, along with select large-cap assets. Thousands of new tokens launched in 2025 alone, dispersing available capital across a broader range of assets.
The analyst stated that retail investors anticipated institutional capital inflows would benefit the broader market. Instead, large institutional players concentrated holdings in major assets while retail capital pursued short-term investment narratives. As liquidity is distributed across numerous tokens, potential gains for most altcoins diminished.
Under these conditions, 99% of altcoins may never return to prior all-time highs, according to the analyst’s projection. The four-year cycle models that previously guided market participants may no longer function as reliable indicators.
What happened?
The crypto market is experiencing a shift that could leave most altcoins permanently below their previous all-time highs. With liquidity spread across thousands of tokens, the chances of altcoins recovering are slim. The traditional four-year cycle models, which once guided market predictions, may no longer hold up as reliable indicators.
In the past, these cycle models worked because they were based on factors like Bitcoin halvings and limited market awareness, which made the cycles easier to predict. However, as these patterns became widely recognized, their predictive value diminished. A 2022 projection had anticipated a cycle peak around late 2025, and this was largely aligned with the market high seen in October 2025. But the current market structure is showing signs of deviation from previous cycles.
Unlike the 2018-2021 cycle, where the market saw a sharp 75% price decline followed by over a year of sideways movement, today’s decline is happening much faster. Despite this, long-term support levels, such as the 200-week moving average, have remained intact, suggesting that the market is more resilient than a typical cycle-end scenario would imply.
Instead of expecting a prolonged downturn followed by 600 days of sideways movement, the analyst believes the market may already have completed 80-90% of the expected price decline. After that, about 200 days of consolidation may occur before price expansion resumes. This suggests a mid-cycle reset, challenging the consensus view that a traditional bear market and significant losses are still on the horizon.
If this scenario plays out, the market could see an earlier-than-expected recovery, as the price compression will likely resolve more quickly than many anticipate. However, for altcoins, the outlook remains bleak, with most failing to reach their previous highs due to the concentration of capital in larger assets. Until the market decisively breaks through current support levels, the downtrend is expected to persist within a broader expansion phase.
#altcoins